International & World Report

Three months after threatening to degrade the notes of BNP Paribas, Societe Generale and Credit Agricole, put under surveillance, the U.S. rating agency, Moody's, could rise to the act shortly shortly. According to sources familiar with the matter, the decision was "imminent." "It comes at the end of three months to impose surveillance," says a source. The rating agency that had accompanied its implementation in June under the supervision of a negative outlook, clearly had in fact paved the way for a deterioration in credit ratings. One step for BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole and Societe Generale for two.On the first day of September, the losses of the three titles are respectively 17.45%, 22.33% and 27.69%.

Analysts relativize

Especially, a controversy arose in late August on the valuation of debt securities by certain Greek French banks. The IASB, the body responsible for setting international accounting standards, criticized some financial institutions are not named, have valued their claims on the Greek state in ways internal development rather than by using market prices cheap payday advance. Which would have allowed banks to spend less severe impairment in their accounts. Even if they have applied a discount of 21% on government debt they have in their accounts, the three banks still have about six billion euros of Greek sovereign debt.

Some analysts relativize however, the scope of the surveillance on June 15 the three French banks by Moody's, noting that the other two rating agencies, Standard & Poor's (S & P) and Fitch attributed to them have lower grades. Crédit Agricole SA is currently rated "Aa1" by Moody's and "Aa2" by BNP Paribas and Societe Generale. S & P assigned the notes 'AA' with a negative outlook to BNP and "A +" with stable outlook to Crédit Agricole and Societe Generale. Fitch is on his side to "AA-" with stable outlook to BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole, and "A +" with stable outlook for Societe Generale.

Among the statistics expected Monday in Wall Street, the surprise came from consumer spending. The Americans have in fact spent more than expected in July. Up 0.8% on month, consumer spending across the Atlantic more than 0.3 percentage points the level expected by analysts. Because of inflation, which rose 0.4% from June, consumer spending rose 0.5% in real terms. Their progress is the highest since December 2009.

This increase serves as a good sign for U.S. growth in the third quarter. What mood enhancing buyer investors, who already showed optimism prior to publication.At the opening of the session on Monday in New York, the Dow Jones ahead by 0.74% to 11,368 points, the Nasdaq and Standard & Poor's 500 rising 1.36% respectively in 2514 and 1 points, 40% to 1193 points.

The final impact less severe than expected from Hurricane Irene passed over New York yesterday, also contributes to investor optimism. Similarly, after being confused by the speech of Ben Bernanke, the Fed chairman, on Friday, market participants regain hope in a possible intervention by the Fed.

The Dow Jones above 11,000 points

According to analysts at Aurel BGC in fact, the announcement by Ben Bernanke, a two-day meeting in September to study in detail the possible deployment of new monetary tools, reassured. "Either the recovery of economic activity is growing, or the central bank will implement new support measures, they summarize.Under these conditions, the U.S. indices rebounded sharply after Bernanke's speech. "

In fact, dropped below the 11,000 points while the Fed chairman began to speak, the Dow finished at 11 284.5, up 1.2% on Friday night. A final increase, which encouraged European stock markets bounce back on Monday morning, except in London, closed due to holiday.

Another indicator which will be followed on Monday, the promises of home sales for July are expected down 0.1% from a consensus of analysts, against 2.4% rise previously.

The bank should remain in the spotlight

No major publication is expected on the business side.

However, the banking sector will probably still at the heart of analysts' expectations, due to the rebound in the sector in Europe.

The Tokyo Stock Exchange plays yo-yo since the beginning of the week. After losing more than 1% Wednesday, the Tokyo Stock Exchange shows a sharp rebound of 2.18% to 8828.38 points. Investors reacted positively to the new fence up Wall Street but also the weakening of the yen that benefits Japanese exporters. Thursday morning, the dollar advanced in effect from 0.13% to 77.06 yen while the euro gained 0.05% to 110.99 yen.The Japanese Minister of Finance, candidate for prime minister, announced Wednesday a package of measures to counter the effects of the outbreak of the Japanese currency.

As a result, car manufacturers progressed significantly: Toyota climbed from 2.46% to 2785 yen, Mitsubishi rose 2.8% to 1761 yen and Honda advanced 5.9% to 2456 yen.

Oil prices rise

Other Asian financial centers also evolved significantly in the green, including the Chinese stock exchanges: the Hong Kong Hang Seng gained 1.55% to 19,767.60 points and the CSI 300 took 2.42% to 2878.01 points.Otherwise, the Kospi Index was up 0.86% to 1769.84 points, the S & P / ASX 200 in Sydney gained 0.88% to 4204.40 points and the FTSE Straits Times rose 1.21% in 2752, 77 points.

Oil prices were up Thursday morning during electronic trading in Asia, in a market sensitive to the situation in Libya and cautious speech eagerly awaited the head of the U.S. central bank (Fed). In morning trading, a barrel of "light sweet crude" for delivery in October has appreciated by 14 cents to 85.30 dollars per barrel of Brent North Sea crude for October delivery took 21 cents to 110.36 dollars .

Wall Street has failed to confirm its rebound on Wednesday. At the close, the Dow Jones unscrewed from 4.62% to 10,719.94 points, the Nasdaq 4.09% to 2381.05 loose points and the S & P lost 4.42% to 1120.76 points. As in Europe, signs of nervousness was palpable. The volume of trade has been very substantial and heightened volatility.

Again, the problems of sovereign debt in Europe have focused attention. Greece plans to expand its exchange program to include obligations of the securities in the longer term, which penalizes first private creditors. As the European markets, particularly the banking sector has been attacked in the image of Bank of America (-9.87%), Citigroup (-8.49%), Goldman Sachs (-7.76%), Morgan Stanley (-7.52%), Wells Fargo (-6.17%) and JP Morgan Chase (-6.13%).

In addition, rumors of worsening debt rating by a French rating agency have affected investors. "These rumors are totally unfounded and the three agencies Standard and Poor's, Fitch and Moody's have confirmed that there was no risk of degradation," however, said the entourage of the French finance minister, Baroin.

"At this stage, investors dizzy," says Oliver Pursche, president of Gary Goldberg Financial Services.

Fear of a recession

In addition, operators are even very concerned about the state of the U.S. economy. Yesterday, the world stock markets have overreacted, and positive against all odds, to about the Fed. This has indeed ensured that it would maintain its rates at a historical low, and until mid-2013 to support the economy.Oil stocks have fallen dramatically and unexpectedly last week in the U.S., according to figures released by the U.S. Department of Energy. Crude inventories fell 5.2 million barrels to 349.8 million barrels in the week ended August 5. Analysts polled by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast the contrary, an increase of 1.1 million barrels.

Note that the budget deficit of the United States continued to fall in July for the fourth consecutive month according to figures released Wednesday by the Treasury Department.The action even reached 10.36 dollars during the session, the lowest price ever since the split with Time Warner in 2009.

Facebook on Tuesday launched a new application for mobile phones iPhone (Apple) and those equipped with the Android operating system (Google) to send messages to his "friends" on social networking, but also to other contacts. Called "Messenger", the application can send both text messages (SMS) and email.

Apple (-2.76% to 363.69 dollars) briefly delighted, yesterday, Exxon Mobil (-4.59% to 67.90 dollars), its position as the first market capitalization.

Firefighters desperately looking for financial markets. For a month, the Cac 40, which recorded its ninth session Thursday consecutive decline, has lost 17%! And the stock market this week might conclude on the tenth. Shortly after opening, the stock market index fell by 2.09% to 3250.95 points.

On other European financial centers, the atmosphere is also depressed: the Footsie-100 from the London Stock Exchange 2.58% to 5254.11 loose points, the DAX 30 Frankfurt Stock Exchange fall 3.85% to 6167.96 points, the FTSE MIB in Milan leaves 3.44% to 15,573.84 points, the Madrid Ibex 35 yields 1.96% to 8516.20 points, the Bel 20 in Brussels is down 3, 61% to 2143.45 points.

In anticipation of U.S. employment figures

That can extinguish the fire which engulfed global stock markets? The President of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, it is tested in an exercise it is broken.Without having reassured, he did not panic by not clarifying his intentions on debt buybacks. "It's the return of the behavior of crisis," says Aurel BGC in it.

Consequence: the main European stock markets fell 3% to 4%, Wall Street plunged 5%, Asian stock markets slumped 2% to 5%, oil is trading around 85 dollars a barrel and not to vicinity of $ 100 as there are about ten days, and gold flies to 1700 dollars per ounce. A scenario that is not yet catastrophic according Volokhine Gregori, president of Meeschaert Capital Markets. "We're not on a" bear market "(bear market over a long period), he says.We will be there when the stock markets lose 20% per week. "

After the publication of interim results of the banks, the speech of Jean-Claude Trichet, investors will monitor closely the figures for employment and unemployment in the United States for the month of July (1430). "This does not fundamentally change the market trends, said Grigory Volokhine Business on BFM.

The trade deficit declined in June

Most investors expect to know if there will be further monetary easing to support the U.S. economy and if European countries are finally going their act together. " Same story on the side of Aurel BGC. "Even a figure in line with expectations should not prevent markets brooding, said Christian Parisot, chief economist at Aurel BGC.Hopefully a little bounce if it exceeds the expectations. "

Other macroeconomic news: the trade deficit of France. He was greatly reduced in June to 5.598 billion euros, after 6.415 billion in May, according to data released Friday by Customs.

On the corporate side, the last two banks issued after market close on Thursday night: Natixis and Dexia.

Natixis: -3.29% to 2.676 euros

Natixis on Thursday posted a net profit above expectations in the second quarter thanks to a sharp increase in the contribution of results from regional banks of its parent BPCE (People's Bank – Savings Bank).

Dexia: -6.88% to 1.54 euros

Dexia announced the heaviest loss in its history, a performance due to both the sale of a portfolio of toxic assets – centerpiece of its restructuring plan – and its contribution to the aid plan on sovereign debt Greek.

Carrefour: 18.56 euros stable

Carrefour announced a new reorganization of its management, including replacing its chief financial officer, when the group just straightening operations in France and suffered a major strategic setback in Brazil.

LVMH: -2.30% to 112.55 euros

LVMH said Thursday it had received approval from Consob, the Italian stock market authority, for offering Italian jeweler Bulgari on which he announced the takeover in March.

Vicat: -5.47% to 44.24 euros

Vicat said Thursday expect a slight reduction of its operating margin in 2011 due to the revolution in Egypt, the rising energy costs and start-up costs of factories in India.

Careful, this is the verdict seems to be emerging markets about the compromise between Republicans and Democrats to raise the debt ceiling. European shares closed sharply lower on Monday and Wall Street is in the red at mid-session.

European leaders hailed the recovery of 2.4 trillion dollars in the legal limit of U.S. debts. Enough to hold until 2013, after the U.S. presidential election in November 2012 of. "This plan raises considerable uncertainty that hovered in recent days on the market about a risk of recession in the United States, welcomes Philippe Waechter, head of economic research at Natixis AM. While no agreement was reached before Aug. 2, the federal government could not spend what he earns, which would have sealed the growth. "But economists remain cautious: the lack of plan detail and ambition.

• Two uncertainties

The plan presented by President Barack Obama and the Democratic and Republican negotiators is still a project that has not passed by Congress. "The Republicans may be unhappy with the cuts in the defense budget. (…) In addition, any tax increase is explicitly provided, which could make it difficult to convince a sufficient number of Democrats to vote the text, "Analysis Paul Mortimer-Lee, chief economist at BNP Paribas IPC.

Second unknown, raised by Inna Mufteeva, economist at Natixis, "no timetable has been issued for budget cuts. These cuts should not be introduced too fast, Barack Obama assured, but it would be interesting to know when. "Especially the plan, based solely on spending cuts and no tax increase, is likely to influence an already weak growth.

• A plan insufficient

"The total savings proposed, or 2.4 trillion dollars, is insufficient to put the U.S. budget on track," said Paul Mortimer-Lee. The rating agency Standard & Poor's estimated 4 trillion in savings over 10 years are needed to reduce the U.S. debt.

• The main decisions postponed

Almost two-thirds of the austerity measures -1.5 trillion dollars over a total of 2.4 trillion-flow from the proposals of the committee for the opportunity to be presented in November. Result, "there are still too many uncertainties about possible future tax and budget cuts, concerned about Paul Mortimer-Lee. This uncertainty will penalize investment decisions and hiring companies. Growth will suffer.The compromise presented Sunday night therefore merely postpone the problem, and not far beyond. "

• Questions about Washington's ability to make decisions

"Initially, Obama targeted Republicans as a plan of 4,000 billion dollars, said Philippe Waechter. As they differed on how to achieve their ambition has melted over the negotiations, to agree in the end the lowest common denominator (2400 billion dollars in savings). "

So lacking in the original goal to doubt the effectiveness of the American political system. "If there were only Republicans and Democrats agreed was found. But the presence of extremists of the Tea Party has changed the situation, forcing the Republicans to more than intransigence, Philippe Waechter analysis. It has changed the political system in the United States.Part of the Republicans wanted something other than what was negotiated usual, causing the blockage. "

This could happen in the future, warned Standard & Poor's in a note dated July 14: "The inability to reach an agreement today leads us to believe that there will be no more coming years. "This argument could lose its" AAA "in the United States.

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The text provides for the implementation of financial sanctions in case of conflict of interest.

LE FIGARO. – What are the main points of this text?

Xavier BERTRAND. – I said I want there to be a before and an after-Mediator. That's why I wanted an ambitious reform and concerted based on three pillars. The first is transparency in conflicts of interest. For it is clear that it is essentially this question that has caused confusion in public opinion after the Mediator by creating a climate of suspicion unbearable. Another important point when there will be questions about a drug, the doubt should benefit patients and not laboratories. Finally, better information for patients is necessary, as well as better information and training for health professionals.

Only sanctions can overcome the conflicts of interest.What are your plans?

The law sets up financial and criminal penalties for violators. Any decision of a proceeding in which a conflict of interest is identified will be void. For laboratories, the penalties can go as far as the marketing ban. All this is particularly chilling.

You know a law can not do everything. How do you proceed?

The law will not be the only element of this overhaul of the system. We must prepare decrees, including the training of health professionals. Thus, the continuing education of physicians should no longer give the feeling of being entirely in the hands of medical representatives. That is why I want this new system is evaluated in two to three years.I do not want to do in half-measures but in radical reform.

The General Inspectorate of Social Affairs called to abolish the profession of pharmaceutical sales. You do not accept this proposal, why?

There is a distinction between promotion and information. It is clear that the existence of the medical as we knew it is over. It is even prohibited individual to the hospital. Physicians will face several health visitor. Funding for the training of doctors must be watertight. Certainly, the pharmaceutical industry will contribute, but not directly as is the case today. It will do so through taxes and royalties, which go through the state and Medicare before being paid back. I want there to be far fewer links between laboratories and physicians in training low fee payday loans.Finally, the Minister of Health should be aware of all the training modules for sales representatives and all the documents they will present to health professionals. This is the French Agency for Safety of Health Products, renamed the "National Security Agency of Medicines and Health Products" (ANSM), who will have control.

The text also plans to make public all contracts with the press, learned societies and patient organizations. This means he the death of the medical press?

This is not to stop there advertising in the newspapers, but we can require that the amounts of payments to be made public.

While France has decided to prohibit the marketing of the Actos diabetes, the European Medicines Agency wants to leave it on the market.What do you do?

We will maintain the suspension of Actos. This medicine will not be back in French pharmacies. With Germany, we call an approach at European level so that our position is respected. If the European Commission sided with the European Medicines Agency and forced us to return the Actos on the market, there will be a showdown. Also, I am convinced that it is necessary to reform the drug in Europe, because I want that one gives more power to national agencies. Laboratories must understand that things have changed.

The Constitutional Council has just approved the text on the compensation fund for victims of the Mediator.To the laboratory Servier is it always the first charge before the health authorities?

Yes! We should not be mistaken about the primary responsibility in this matter: it is the responsibility of laboratory Servier. The compensation requested by the National Compensation Medical (ONIAM) for victims of the Mediator will be increased to a 30% penalty if the laboratory Servier refuses to comply. We were told that with this 30% penalty (in the body of law, the penalty is 15%, Ed) it was an emergency law, the Constitutional Council has given us reason. In addition, I ask Servier to cooperate fully to compensate the victims.

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Baroin the stage. He keeps repeating the last few days: it will require further cuts in the tax loopholes in 2012. For now, the government planned to cut $ 3 billion. "It is very likely that we will go beyond, as part of the Finance Act," warns the Minister of Economy. Otherwise, the objective of reducing the public deficit (4.6% of GDP in 2012, 3% in 2013) will not be met. The IMF says the same thing Wednesday, in the final version of his report on France, he warned that without additional effort, the deficit "would decline more slowly contemplated" and still reach 3.8% two years.

However, Prime Minister François Fillon reiterated last week even as the French would not have to tighten their belts further.If the IMF is seeking new revenue – or additional savings – is that it considers the government's growth projections too optimistic. He did not table more than 1.9% next year (after 2.1% this year), where the government is preparing its 2012 budget on an assumption of 2.25% (after 2%).

The cost of Greece and Libya

But that's not really what worries Bercy. Growth at 2.25%? "The account will be," says without a doubt a top official of the Ministry of Economy.

However, Bercy identified several elements that could degrade the accounts. First, the second bailout of Greece faxless payday advance. While it will not weigh directly on the deficit of France, as François Fillon stressed. The private sector has agreed to cash a loss equivalent to 21% of the value of the loan granted to Athens.The slate for French banks would exceed 2 billion euros. "We will inevitably income tax on companies and less," admits the Ministry of Economy.

Then "there will be a time when we look at the balance of external operations," Do we loose the ministry. In other words, the commitment of the army in Libya and Afghanistan could be very expensive.

Finally, remember that at Bercy Taiwan frigates affair will cost 460 million euros to France. In early June, after ten years of a bitter legal battle, Thales has indeed been ordered to pay more than $ 800 million in Taiwan, for commissions on the sale of frigates in 1991. The State had brought its guarantee in the contract."Public finances must now endure the heavy consequences of the decision in 1991 to pay commissions, unlike the letter of the contract," Matignon had pointed to the announcement of the court decision. This cost was included in the supplementary budget at the beginning of July. It will, however, offset this expense.

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"After a rigorous regime of five open time of the attack by external growth," warned in March industrialist Vincent Bolloré, chairman and largest shareholder of Havas, on the occasion of the annual results of French communications group. First founding of the strategy of conquest, Havas announced Wednesday a majority stake in Host, "the largest independent creative agency in Australia," said David Jones, appointed four months ago, Havas CEO after chairing the network Havas Worldwide (Euro RSCG and Arnold).The group is already present in Australia through the agency Euro RSCG, Red Agency, Arnold Furnace and Media Contacts.

Founded in 2000 by Anthony Freedman, integrated advertising agency Host has 120 staff and advises clients such as Vodafone, Levi's, Coca-Cola Company and Australian companies BankWest, BT Financial Group and Sydney Water. Havas did not provide the amount of the transaction. David Jones said, however, that Host is "growing with double digit growth in its income for five years." Gross margin for the agency, which will retain its name and its current leaders, is estimated at about $ 30 million. "This acquisition is strategic for Havas, is its CEO. This is the largest independent agency in Australia, a brilliant creative agency several times crowned by lions at Cannes.It is also entirely consistent with our model by placing digital at the heart of everything we do. Over 30% of revenues come from digital Host. Finally, with Host and after the acquisition in late 2010 Porda corporate agency in Hong Kong, we increase further the percentage of our revenue in Asia Pacific. "

750 million cash

This external growth "measured but determined," to borrow the words of Vincent Bolloré, must lead the sixth largest global communications to reach 2.5 billion euros in sales within three years. In 2010, revenue was $ 1.558 billion."We now have a healthy balance sheet with cash of 750 million euros, one billion dollars available for acquisitions while in 2005 Havas posted debts of 750 million euros," says its new CEO.

To refine its strategy, David Jones was held in mid-June sixty major Havas executives in Barcelona. The group aims to strengthen in Asia and Latin America as well as in the digital businesses, with "priority given to social networks and geolocation, which represents the opportunity to major transformation of our industry." In 2010, digital accounted for nearly 20% of its revenues. But unlike its big French rival Publicis, which absorbed Digitas, Razorfish and Rosetta, Havas does not increase the scope of redemptions in the industry."We prefer to focus on budgets and talent at the heart of our agencies, rather than isolating them in silos experts, sometimes paid dearly, insists David Jones. That's what we did in recruiting team or Modernista digital with the acquisition of Socialistic. "Havas should also accelerate the deployment of its" microarray ", Arnold and BETC. The first, born in Boston, is a twenty offices around the world. The second, BETC, created in Paris by Mercedes Erra and Remi Babinet, will remain housed in the Euro RSCG network. After an initial introduction to London, BETC could export its "model of start-up" in the United States, Latin America or Asia.

The European Union (EU) comes to the rescue of its farmers. The European Commission agreed Tuesday to revise upwards in a "substantial" his proposal to release 150 million euros to compensate producers of vegetables in Europe. This is to cope with the losses suffered by the fruit and vegetables after the psychosis to EHEC bacteria has killed 24 people in Europe.

Brussels proposed to compensate the losses up to 30%. But a large majority of European countries have found that it was not nearly enough and have had "strong pressure" to review the amounts rise, according to a diplomatic source.

The exact amount of aid will however be adjusted estimates by country. "We will take the period from late May, marking the beginning of the crisis at the end of June" to calculate the amount of compensation, "said Agriculture Commissioner, Ciolos.This envelope will be accompanied by compensation to 30% of the actual value of losses since the outbreak of epidemics in early May in Germany.

Insufficient support

The only Spaniards consider that the bill because of the boycott of their products by European consumers has cost them 200 million euros. In France, the bill, according to professionals, is approaching 5 million.

French and Spanish Ministers of Agriculture have also questioned the principle of a refund only 30% of losses paydayloans. "What we want is there an answer for all producers, whether or not members of producer organizations and 100% of fair market value of losses," said the Spaniard Rosa Aguilar. The French Bruno Le Maire for his claims for a refund "to the nearest euro.

Berlin slammed

Germany on the other hand was roundly criticized for his handling of the crisis by European Commissioner for Health in the European Parliament meeting in Strasbourg on Tuesday. She had made allegations, soon withdrawn, cons of cucumber Spanish after the demonstration of the first cases of contamination. "It is critical that national authorities are not lining up to give alerts unproven, because it creates problems and psychosis," warned John Dalli."It is important to trigger alerts when certain scientific data," he said.

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