International & World Report

April 2012: fifty-four nuclear reactors in Japan are at a standstill. Not a nuclear power plant does not produce a kilowatt hour. Whereas before the cataclysmic tsunami of March 11, 2011, they provided 25% of the electricity of the Archipelago.

This scenario of a sudden release of nuclear energy in twelve months is not the political fiction. It is seriously considered by officials and experts. Asked about this possibility by Le Figaro last week during his visit to Paris, the new Japanese Minister of Economy, Yukio Edano, kicked into touch. And answered: "We have confirmed the safety of reactors stopped before restarting. I can not tell you when. "

Click on the thumbnail to enlarge the graphic.

Currently, only ten of fifty-four reactors are in operation cash advance in one hour.Besides the four Fukushima Daichi finally destroyed by the tsunami, forty reactors are stopped either because they were damaged on March 11, or to be auscultated. In the next six months, the ten operational reactors must undergo in turn scheduled maintenance shutdowns. Or, while mistrust of nuclear power lies in the opinion, the Government will take maximum precautions before giving the green light to restart.

A shortage of current threat does the Archipelago? The test of the summer was passed (read the story below). Yet he missed 10% of electricity generation capacity, equivalent to the production of the Netherlands, explains Laszlo Varro, head of markets for electricity, coal and gas to the International Energy Agency ( IEA).

It was an open secret. The six countries of the euro area currently receiving a rating of "AAA" (Germany, Austria, Finland, France, Luxembourg and the Netherlands), everyone knew that the Hexagon was the most fragile. And for two main reasons, as the visible one and the other as the nose on your face.

First is the only country of the "club of six" not to balance its accounts public, when we ignore the burden of debt (annual interest payments to our creditors). France continues to display a "primary deficit" in the words properly. This shows that the remediation work is far from complete.Note, for example, that Italy is now in a situation of "primary surplus", even though the peninsula remains weighed down by debt levels far higher ransom of a history of fiscal mismanagement even older than ours.

Second handicap, and distinguishes us from the other five members of the club "triple A" France is the only one to record a deficit of its external accounts. The imbalance between our imports and our exports attests an alarming lack of competitiveness. Clearly, if the French economy was not part of a monetary union, it would now interest to devalue its currency. She would even be forced by the markets.

But that Paris could lose its valuable in the future "triple A" and it would be first across the euro area which would be weakened. Including Germany. Across the Rhine, there is concern especially as a contagion effect.Professor Hans-Werner Sinn, president of the Ifo economic institute, also highly critical of the current functioning of the euro area, just bring a vivid demonstration quick pay day loan.

A model to redefine

In a recent study ("The Ten Commandments to save the euro"), he notes that the cost of insurance on the ten-year Bunds has increased tenfold since the crisis of the euro, to 1.2%. The fault lies, he says, to become burdens on Germany, the main funder of the rescue plans for its partners in the Euroland. This bill gets heavier a little more if France was itself degraded. The warning from Moody's recovery even more debate on French economic policy. Designating Paris as the weak link of the "triple A" rating agency highlights the twin deficits, internal and external, which is our brand.And these two imbalances, the most distressing is certainly the failure of "Made in France" to find its place under the sun of the euro.

Compared to its neighbors "triple A" – true "mark area" within the monetary union – France stands out on another point. Never in modern history since the First World War, it has succeeded in establishing a social contract where competitiveness is central. Such as the famous Wassenaar agreement of 1982 in the Netherlands, to exit the eternal Germanic model, in fact that of all Northern Europe. Rather than attempt to "re-enchant the French dream", which has ceased to be missing the point, here is the challenge.

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"The opening of new headquarters in Sao Paulo marks a new stage in our development in Brazil. All divisions of EADS are now combined in the same premises in order to increase efficiency. This is an important symbol because there are many synergies between them. " Offensive, Louis Welsh, president of EADS, sent to the group's employees a message of confidence in their ability to ramp up in Brazil, where it generated more than 1 billion euros in turnover in 2010 against 468 million euros in 2009.

To speed up, EADS is based on solid commercial and industrial positions built by his two spearheads: Airbus and Eurocopter. The European aircraft manufacturer owns 70% of the market for Brazilian civil aviation with 600 units sold and over 250 aircraft to be delivered.Since 1998, Airbus has tripled the size of the fleet in service with his family in 320 has accumulated 350 orders. The company LATAM (after the merger between TAM and LAN) is now in the top five customers of Airbus, while the regional airline TRIP is the world leader in turboprop (propeller) ATR, a subsidiary of EADS and Finmeccanica. Airbus hopes to increase further by assuming the largest share of a market whose needs are estimated at 610 new aircraft by 2020.

A new plant in Itajuba

Eurocopter, meanwhile, was the pioneer group in terms of technology transfer. He is the only helicopter manufacturer in the world to have implemented a comprehensive industrial activity in Brazil. And this, in 1978 by creating a subsidiary, Helibras. Its plant Itajuba (Minas Gerais) will be delivered after that date, 610 helicopter in late 2011.Between 1978 and 2011, Eurocopter's market share jumped from 14 to 53% in Brazil. To cope with this growth, the group plans to open two maintenance workshops in Brasilia and Rio will open this winter and a new plant in the presence of Itajuba Dilma Roussef, the president of the Brazilian Republic.

The new site will assemble including the EC 175 for the Brazilian army. Three years after the signing of a contract to acquire 50 EC 175, accompanied by a transfer of technology, the program aims 50% local value added. To this end, Helibras just doubled the capacity of its engineering center and plans to open a technology institute in association with the University of Itajuba. "Several industrial packages were signed with the Brazilian industry: from the 26th unit, only the cell (note: the body of the helicopter) will be delivered in Marignane," says Louis Welsh.Become the fourth industrial base of Eurocopter, behind France, Germany and Spain, Helibras will have 1100 employees by 2015 against 610 in 2011 (and 290 in 2009).

"EADS has become a Brazilian citizen"

The goal is to build on the expertise of Helibras to launch a new helicopter 100% made in Brazil by 2020. For now, the subsidiary is in line to meet with the EC 225, the civilian version of the EC 725, the growing needs of oil companies, including national oil Petrobras, an offshore market estimated at 60 gear. "With Helibras, EADS became a Brazilian citizen. It is considered a success by the government. Thanks to our ability to offer technology transfer, training of local staff and to adapt our products to our customers' needs, we can also penetrate into the space and defense, "said Louis Welsh.

The time is right because Brazil wants to boost its defense industry and space. Dilma Roussef took last Friday a series of support measures in this direction with the view to learn new skills because there is no question, as in the past, to rely on foreign equipment. The president of Brazil was cited as the first site implementation specifications of the future communications satellite in Brazil. "This satellite will have a hybrid dual mission: to satisfy the needs of the army and bring broadband to areas that do not yet have access," said Jean-Noel Hardy, vice president of sales and marketing in Latin America to Astrium, EADS Space.

The purchase process should be launched by end 2011-early 2012 by the state holding Telebras. Astrium and its subsidiary Equatorial systemas stand ready to respond to build that future satellite.The timetable is tight because Brasilia plans to launch in 2014. "The transfer of technology associated with the contract of 716 million reals (about 360 million euros) to pave the way for a second satellite with a major domestic content in 2019," said Jean-Noel Hardy.

A partnership with Thales not excluded

In the even more sensitive defense and security, Cassidian, a subsidiary of EADS Defence, created in 2010, a joint venture with Odebrecht, a diversified conglomerate that controls the transfer of technology in submarines sold by France. The joint venture's primary mission to respond to future tender for the monitoring of land and sea borders of countries with command centers. "We do not exclude to partner with Thales to win this contract," says Louis Welsh.

It is estimated at 7.5 billion euros over five years.World Cup Soccer in 2014 and the Olympic Games in 2016 as Brazil hosts play a role as a spur to a country recognizes the need to invest heavily in the fight against insecurity. Cassidian who has already won its first contract to equip the federal police secure communications systems, also expects the results of the tenders awarded by the policies of the 26 Brazilian states who want to equip. "This market is estimated at 1 billion euros, and we hope to take at least half," said Christian Gras, President Cassidian Brazil.

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The atmosphere is dull on the Bourse de Paris. The CAC 40 was down over 3% to 2694 points, after plunging 5.25% on Thursday. Over the whole week and he gave up 9.3% since the beginning of the year almost 28%. Mobilization and call for unity of the G20 held yesterday evening in Washington fail to reassure the markets. Friday morning, Asian stock markets were still sharply lower.

Elsewhere in Europe, the Dax in Frankfurt Stock Exchange lost 1.10% and the FTSE in London yields 0.50%.

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Shortly before the opening of U.S. stock markets, index futures and Standard & Poors'500 evolved Nasdaq 100, respectively 0.07% to 1186.50 points and – 0.53% to 2205 points, suggesting a hesitant start of the session.

The day before, the index featuring New York has sold more than 1%, as the S & P, while the Nasdaq limited its losses – 0.78%. Investors signaled their disappointment and after the speech of the President of the Federal Reserve (Fed), Ben Bernanke. He did, in fact, made no indication as to potential nudges the Monetary Policy Committee of the U.S. central bank might decide to implement after the meeting scheduled for September 20 and 21.The banking sector fell sharply on Thursday on Wall Street, precisely because of this lack of detail.

The dollar has him down after another long-awaited announcement yesterday, but came after the close: the stimulus of employment. Announced Thursday by U.S. President Barack Obama, it reached 447 billion against $ 300 billion anticipated by the markets. Its effect on Wall Street, however, could be mixed, most investors expecting the Republicans in Congress, then block its adoption.

Market analysts estimate IG still that "the optimists seem to want to return to the market," leaving hope of eventually positive impact on Obama's plan investor sentiment. The question is whether this will play starting this weekend or delayed. Meanwhile, European stock markets were on the downside.Bank stocks were particularly exacerbated their losses after the remarks of Christine Lagarde, Executive Director of the IMF, stressed the urgent need for additional capital banks.Investors also follow closely the discussions of the G7 Finance, met for two days in Europe in Marseille.

Another item, from China, could also help to soothe, on both sides of the Atlantic: Inflation has indeed slowed in China in August, which removes the fear that Beijing tighten monetary policy payday loans direct lenders.

This Friday, Wall Street, the macroeconomic agenda will be relatively light, only a first estimate of consumer confidence from the University of Michigan for the month of September is indeed expected.

Threats to jobs at Bank of America

On the corporate side, no major publication was in sight Friday.

The job cuts planned by the management of Bank of America (BofA) as part of its restructuring plan could affect 40,000 people, said Friday the Wall Street Journal Online, citing sources familiar with the matter. The group identified on 30 June nearly 288,000 employees. So far, estimates of job losses were around 30,000, while many banks worldwide have announced significant staff reductions. These reductions would occur as part of an extensive research program savings called "Project LAC", the acronym by which exchanged the title of the institution to the New York Stock Exchange.

Texas Instruments, however, could respond after a warning issued Thursday night on its third quarter results, citing a decline in demand for semiconductors. IT had already warned in July that the current quarter would be modest.The group emphasized that this time the request had deteriorated to "a wide range of products, markets." The manufacturer of components that go particularly in the manufacture of mobile phones and automotive electronics, said now anticipate earnings per share between 56 cents and 60 against a previous range stretching from 55 to 65 cents.

Finally, according to The New York Times on Thursday, U.S. regulators are close to agreement with the mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, about their role in the crisis of 2008.

While the German Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe Wednesday should make its decision on the validity of the first aid package to Greece, passed in 2010, the German government has increased pressure on Athens.

According to several newspapers across the Rhine, Chancellor Angela Merkel had informed members of his party (CDU) that Greece would not receive payment of the installment scheduled Sept. 15 if it did not meet its targets for reducing deficits. More explicitly, the German finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, said before Parliament that if the mission of the Troika, interrupted last week, did not resume quickly and did not end in a positive way, "the next tranche of aid would not be granted. "

Recent electoral defeat

This hardening of the tone is to contain the discontent in the ranks of the CDU since the election defeat on Sunday in the Land of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. In fact, Angela Merkel only has a narrow majority to vote in the Bundestag on 29 September, the second aid plan in Athens. The Chancellor must give his firm pledges of Parliament to show that it does not dig a bottomless pit.

The pressure put by the Germans to the Greeks also reflects simply the blocking of the situation in Athens, unable to meet its commitments payday loan no faxing. According to Reuters, Greece would have asked to be faster than expected payment of the amounts promised in the second aid plan, which would mean that its finances are deteriorating faster than expected.Unlike France, more and more states are reluctant to vote with the second.

The head of the Slovak Parliament, Richard Sulik said that Slovakia would deal in December on strengthening the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF). The plan "can not therefore enter into force in February," Sulik said.

All these questions are still weighed heavily on bonds in the euro area on Tuesday. While Italy was forced to further accelerate the passage of the austerity plan is to Madrid came the aftershocks. The leader of the CCOO, one of the main Spanish trade unions, said Prime Minister José Luis Zapatero, would have admitted that the country was "on the edge of the abyss" and would need a bailout. Remarks Tuesday strongly denied by the Spanish government, which illustrate the growing tensions in each country.

"The Apple employees called the police directly from the Mission District neighborhood, asking them to help locate a lost object," said the police. "They then went into the house to search for the lost object (…) but they have not found". The statement did not specify what the object sought, but the title of the document "iPhone5.doc" is final! For now, the group does not want to complain.

Enhanced security

Ironically, Apple continues to strengthen security around its new devices to avoid the rustle in the media information about new projects. Thus, in a Guardian blog, it is stated that the latest iPhone are transported in locked boxes and sealed. Almost no one is able to open these packages. And the software itself is protected.The walls that do not, however, resist the doors of bars!

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Operation must! The government will this week attempt to convince the financial markets on its ability to control public finances. François Fillon unveiled late Wednesday afternoon in the presence of Baroin and Valerie Pécresse, the Ministers of Economy and Budget, the new conservation measures for France to retain investor confidence and its " AAA. "

The government enters the final stretch trade-offs. François Fillon and Nicolas Sarkozy meet to sort the list of suggestions made last week by Bercy (and amended by the relevant ministries) and begin to remove some tracks.Then the president and prime minister Wednesday to finalize the measures to adopt.

The government did not release the extent of the plan, but it evokes an effort between 5 and 10 billion, and a trend towards the top. The turn of the screw will break down between savings on public spending and further cuts in tax and social niches.

On this last point, the government does not start from scratch. The measures that were passed in the fall (tax on marriages, on the solar panels, niches plane, etc.). Will yield 2.4 billion in 2012. But we'll have to do much more. There is another month, the government did not request such an effort to households and businesses. He planned to take samples of only 3 billion. With 2.4 billion already in the pipeline, the step to take was minimal.But since the degradation of "AAA" rating from the United States, France finds itself under pressure from the markets. Even if it borrows at low levels (2.74% at ten years), a sign of confidence that it continues to generate, France must do everything to protect his note. For if it were lowered, the state should borrow at higher rates. According to the Court of Auditors, an increase of one point would increase the debt burden of $ 2 billion the first year. To prevent a runaway cost of debt, the government should not deviate from its route.

Increase in the social package

Paris has pledged to reduce its public deficit to 5.7% of GDP in 2011 and 4.6% in 2012. This objective was particularly complicated since the Insee reported zero growth in the second quarter. Bercy forecasts an increase of 2% of GDP in 2011 and 2.25% in 2012 now seem too optimistic.On average, economists expect now on a 1.4% growth next year. However, less growth means less tax revenue and more spending for the state, the social security and local authorities. Without necessarily announcing Wednesday a revised its growth forecasts, the government is obliged, if he wants to keep its deficit targets, to take austerity measures …

Increase in the social package for businesses, new plane and lower overall ceiling of niches, penknife devices ultramarine and real estate … the tracks are not lacking. The government also provides measures for the social security system, not to mention taxing very high incomes as suggested on Wednesday, Maurice Levy, president of Publicis and the Association of Private Enterprises (Afep), in an article in Le Monde ."We need efforts that will be requested to the French are fairly distributed," assured the same day Valerie Pécresse on Europe 1. The measures adopted will be included in budget 2012.

France can she get into the spiral of Greece, where budget cuts exacerbate the recession, which in turn widens the gap? A priori not. This year, increases in taxes, resulting from the measures passed in the fall, reached $ 12 billion. Without destabilizing the country.

Real estate: the cropped Scellier

Before the crisis, Bercy was considering reducing benefits. The pressure is greatest.

• Law Scellier

The niche Scellier reduces its tax by investing in rental real estate. It was expected that the tax reduction equal to 22% of the investment in 2011 reaches 18% in 2012.The reduction could fall to 15%.

• Ready to zero +

There are plans to reintroduce a means test for the loan (PTZ), in order to focus on vulnerable households.

• Capital gains on real estate

The capital gain on the sale of a principal residence will remain tax exempt. For other assets, the gain is taxed at 19%, plus 12.3% social. However, there is a reduction (10% per year after five years in prison) that applies to the capital gain and will disappear for undeveloped land for building. It is also the question of decline (eg 5%) for other goods.Another track: the system of reduction of the gain disappears for the payment of social security contributions.

Niches: plane and down the ceiling

The tax loopholes will undergo a new movement of the plane after the last year which affected 22 devices (Scellier, actions overseas, the tax credit for environmental equipment in the house). The rate of tax reduction was reduced by 10%: a rate of 50% was increased to 45%, a rate of 25% to 22% … The measure, however, has yet to be felt, because the first plane applies to the income tax paid in 2012, sitting on the revenues of 2011. The government planned to meet the plane in 2011 (eg 15%) and pass a new tax on plane sitting on the revenues of 2012.
Widely used devices, such as overseas benefits or tax credits for equipment of the house will still be trimmed.MPs want all the niches are planed. Others will disappear. In addition, the overall ceiling of niches, set at 6% of income over 18,000 euros, will be lowered.

Companies: rising social package

Social package, paid by companies on the profit-sharing and employee savings, should be increased from 6% to 8%. Expected gain: 400 million euros. Since its inception in 2009, the government increased the fee by 2 points every year! Systems loss carry-on prior and subsequent, which limit the corporate tax should be reduced. They benefit primarily to large companies but the government wants to rebalance the tax burden with the small. The carry-back would
limited to one year. And to carry forward losses from the profits would be capped.In Germany, the losses charged can not exceed 60% of the profit. However, the idea of ​​limiting the deductibility of loan interest is difficult to implement.

Tax on very wealthy households

The government pledged in the spring to tax high incomes, and a working group must report its findings in the fall. Two tracks are at this stage on the table to non-deductible from corporate income tax payments "extravagant" or create a new tax paid by very wealthy households. The latter option holds the rope in the government because it has the support of parliamentarians. Gilles Carrez, the rapporteur of the budget UMP
in the Assembly, propose to tax at a rate of 1% or 2% revenues exceeding one million euros per year. But Peter wants Méhaignerie the new tax applies from 150,000 euros to 200,000 euros in annual income for a couple.The lively debates ahead!

Other tracks: capital gains on the hot seat

Gilles Carrez wants the taxation of life insurance is carried over the water each year on their earnings potential, while households are now taxed when withdrawn at a variable rate depending on the length of detention ( 7.5% after eight years). Another idea: adjust the taxation of life insurance, whether it is placed in shares or products without risk. The UMP Jérôme Chartier wants to create an additional ceiling on tax loopholes, reducing to 50% of tax due from the advantage of niches. But Bercy is not favorable. Finally, many parliamentarians call for the removal of reliefs on capital gains from stocks and bonds (third year in excess of five years from 2012).

The aim is to encourage solidarity among employees. UMP deputy from the Loire, Paul Salen, filed in July 2011 a bill providing a legal framework for donations of RTT. A consistent practice in companies, which had so far developed in the silence of the Labour Code and case law.

The member was itself inspired by an actual case that occurred recently in his constituency. Badoit employees have offered 170 days of RTT to one of them to accompany her to the end of a child with liver cancer. A single gesture of solidarity was observed in April in the automotive supplier Fuji Autotech in the Doubs, in favor of an employee whose husband was suffering from lymphoma. Or at Merial, a subsidiary of Sanofi, which has even signed a collective agreement on this.

Company agreements

For now, no text did not mention the possibility of offering shorter working week, days off or recovery. This practice was not illegal as long. Spontaneous, it has developed on the basis of agreements between employees and employer, which is responsible for the holidays. "The agreements allow the company to implement virtually any provision not prohibited by the labor code," says Eric Rocheblave, lawyer office.

Thus the employees of Adixen in Annecy, could pay back all of their Christmas bonus for interim company, who did not have touched before fast cash now. Or that Renault executives have, by sacrificing RTT make ends months of Workers' group, one time forced to short.

Few dispute

But if an agreement is simple enough to offer its RTT, why, then, legislate? The bill appears to meet two objectives. First draw the attention of public opinion on a new form of solidarity. Then make sure to prevent abuses that could result.

Thus the proposed text, which focuses only on the donations bound for parents whose child is "gravely ill," says that the agreement required the employee donor such as his employer. "To the extent that these initiatives are based on agreements, litigation is rare. For now, it is even nonexistent, "Eric Rocheblave nuance. Already signed by 136 MPs, Paul Salen, interviewed Thursday morning in Les Echos, has high hopes to push through the text before the next presidential election.

"YOUR OPINION – Do you agree with the initiative of offering their employees days off? Would you be willing to do the same for a colleague? Share your thoughts and experience in the comments below or by email at temoin@lefigaro.fr.

Baroin the stage. He keeps repeating the last few days: it will require further cuts in the tax loopholes in 2012. For now, the government planned to cut $ 3 billion. "It is very likely that we will go beyond, as part of the Finance Act," warns the Minister of Economy. Otherwise, the objective of reducing the public deficit (4.6% of GDP in 2012, 3% in 2013) will not be met. The IMF says the same thing Wednesday, in the final version of his report on France, he warned that without additional effort, the deficit "would decline more slowly contemplated" and still reach 3.8% two years.

However, Prime Minister François Fillon reiterated last week even as the French would not have to tighten their belts further.If the IMF is seeking new revenue – or additional savings – is that it considers the government's growth projections too optimistic. He did not table more than 1.9% next year (after 2.1% this year), where the government is preparing its 2012 budget on an assumption of 2.25% (after 2%).

The cost of Greece and Libya

But that's not really what worries Bercy. Growth at 2.25%? "The account will be," says without a doubt a top official of the Ministry of Economy.

However, Bercy identified several elements that could degrade the accounts. First, the second bailout of Greece faxless payday advance. While it will not weigh directly on the deficit of France, as François Fillon stressed. The private sector has agreed to cash a loss equivalent to 21% of the value of the loan granted to Athens.The slate for French banks would exceed 2 billion euros. "We will inevitably income tax on companies and less," admits the Ministry of Economy.

Then "there will be a time when we look at the balance of external operations," Do we loose the ministry. In other words, the commitment of the army in Libya and Afghanistan could be very expensive.

Finally, remember that at Bercy Taiwan frigates affair will cost 460 million euros to France. In early June, after ten years of a bitter legal battle, Thales has indeed been ordered to pay more than $ 800 million in Taiwan, for commissions on the sale of frigates in 1991. The State had brought its guarantee in the contract."Public finances must now endure the heavy consequences of the decision in 1991 to pay commissions, unlike the letter of the contract," Matignon had pointed to the announcement of the court decision. This cost was included in the supplementary budget at the beginning of July. It will, however, offset this expense.

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