International & World Report

Navigate troubled markets, a fierce industrial competition and the need to "respect its property interests." The State shareholder is, once again, the experience of a difficult environment – under the sharp eye of Jean-Dominique Comolli, Commissioner of State Holdings, appointed in September 2010. The annual report of the Agency for State holdings (EPA) provides an overview of contrasts.

In terms of numbers, the net result of 57 companies (660 billion euros in total assets combined) in which the state is now stood at 7.9 billion euros in 2010, "a slight increase over that observed in 2009 "(7.4 billion), the report of the EPA.

Under the fiscal 2010, the State should receive 4.4 billion euros in dividends in 2011, "which is the level of dividends received in 2010."The rate of distribution to the State recorded a moderate decline from 59.5% in 2010 to 55.7% in 2011. However, it remains higher than for large companies in the CAC 40.

In a context of bearish markets, the portfolio of listed state accounted for 69 billion market capitalization at September 1, 2011 (as against 88 billion at September 1, 2010)."The value of the portfolio is highly concentrated EPA under the EDF, which fell by 35.17% over the period," says the document.

The evolution of the portfolio reflects in fact "a wide variety of situations" from positive performance in aeronautics / defense to significant reductions of "cyclical" (motor transport) or the financial sector.

A government that is perfect

Governance side, the state shareholder wants to be perfect, either in terms of earnings, mix, or territory. Thus, the overall percentage of women board is 15% in companies where the state is a shareholder. This rate rises to 20% for its own representatives.The state ownership "ensure that executive compensation is directly linked to their performance," says he, too.

The State shall last to the industrial development strategy of companies in which it operates. In 2010, Nicolas Sarkozy had called for a competent administrator in industrial systematically accompanies the representative of the EPA in the boards of industrial enterprises. It's done.

And since last year, the owners of the companies concerned are not a "regular" with the Minister of Economy. The main objective is to promote the activity in France.The results of the investigation Bercy last two years are quite encouraging: investment on French territory increased by 7.3% between 2009 and 2010 – even though they are very different industries – and jobs back less and less each year.

See also:

"Comolli at the head of the EPA

"The state is tightening its grip on its business

The atmosphere is dull on the Bourse de Paris. The CAC 40 was down over 3% to 2694 points, after plunging 5.25% on Thursday. Over the whole week and he gave up 9.3% since the beginning of the year almost 28%. Mobilization and call for unity of the G20 held yesterday evening in Washington fail to reassure the markets. Friday morning, Asian stock markets were still sharply lower.

Elsewhere in Europe, the Dax in Frankfurt Stock Exchange lost 1.10% and the FTSE in London yields 0.50%.

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"The Apple employees called the police directly from the Mission District neighborhood, asking them to help locate a lost object," said the police. "They then went into the house to search for the lost object (…) but they have not found". The statement did not specify what the object sought, but the title of the document "iPhone5.doc" is final! For now, the group does not want to complain.

Enhanced security

Ironically, Apple continues to strengthen security around its new devices to avoid the rustle in the media information about new projects. Thus, in a Guardian blog, it is stated that the latest iPhone are transported in locked boxes and sealed. Almost no one is able to open these packages. And the software itself is protected.The walls that do not, however, resist the doors of bars!

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The figures follow and contradict each other. The unemployment rate calculated according to the ILO by INSEE on Thursday came out slightly lower in the second quarter to 9.1% of the workforce in France and 9.6% including Dom, 9 against, respectively, 2% and 9.7% in the first quarter. Overall according to Insee, metropolitan France in the second quarter accounted for 3.3 million people not working but wanted to work. The rate of youth unemployment dropped more sharply than the average (-0.9%), when those over 50, who barely declined, remained stable.

These figures engaged in a pattern opposite to that drawn by far the data of employment center. The number of job seekers Class A (comprising individuals seeking employment and not working, even part-time) has indeed increased overall in the second quarter.After a 0.4% decline in April, rebounded strongly in May and June, respectively 0.6% and 1.3% cash advance to savings account. To the extent that gains harvested since the beginning of the year were at the end of this period almost completely deleted (-2100 seekers Class A less compared to the end of December 2010). An upward trend that continued in July with a new and worrying increase in the number of unemployed.

The two institutes n'appréhendent unemployment statistically not the same. While unemployment on the ILO today released results of a survey conducted by INSEE, the data center jobs are the result of an administrative accounting. Moreover, only a person who has not worked even one hour during the week of the survey and actively seeking work are unemployed within the meaning of an International Labour Office.However, employment center distinguishes different categories (categories A, ABC …) depending on whether the job seeker is working or not. Category A is the one that is closest to the ILO data.

The Tokyo Stock Exchange plays yo-yo since the beginning of the week. After losing more than 1% Wednesday, the Tokyo Stock Exchange shows a sharp rebound of 2.18% to 8828.38 points. Investors reacted positively to the new fence up Wall Street but also the weakening of the yen that benefits Japanese exporters. Thursday morning, the dollar advanced in effect from 0.13% to 77.06 yen while the euro gained 0.05% to 110.99 yen.The Japanese Minister of Finance, candidate for prime minister, announced Wednesday a package of measures to counter the effects of the outbreak of the Japanese currency.

As a result, car manufacturers progressed significantly: Toyota climbed from 2.46% to 2785 yen, Mitsubishi rose 2.8% to 1761 yen and Honda advanced 5.9% to 2456 yen.

Oil prices rise

Other Asian financial centers also evolved significantly in the green, including the Chinese stock exchanges: the Hong Kong Hang Seng gained 1.55% to 19,767.60 points and the CSI 300 took 2.42% to 2878.01 points.Otherwise, the Kospi Index was up 0.86% to 1769.84 points, the S & P / ASX 200 in Sydney gained 0.88% to 4204.40 points and the FTSE Straits Times rose 1.21% in 2752, 77 points.

Oil prices were up Thursday morning during electronic trading in Asia, in a market sensitive to the situation in Libya and cautious speech eagerly awaited the head of the U.S. central bank (Fed). In morning trading, a barrel of "light sweet crude" for delivery in October has appreciated by 14 cents to 85.30 dollars per barrel of Brent North Sea crude for October delivery took 21 cents to 110.36 dollars .

"Real estate: the cropped Scellier

"Niches: plane and down the ceiling

"Companies: rising social package

"Other tracks: capital gains on the hot seat

Operation must! The government will this week attempt to convince the financial markets on its ability to control public finances. François Fillon unveiled late Wednesday afternoon in the presence of Baroin and Valerie Pécresse, the Ministers of Economy and Budget, the new conservation measures for France to retain investor confidence and its " AAA. "

The government enters the final stretch trade-offs. François Fillon and Nicolas Sarkozy meet to sort the list of suggestions made last week by Bercy (and amended by the relevant ministries) and begin to remove some tracks.Then the president and prime minister Wednesday to finalize the measures to adopt.

The government did not release the extent of the plan, but it evokes an effort between 5 and 10 billion, and a trend towards the top. The turn of the screw will break down between savings on public spending and further cuts in tax and social niches.

On this last point, the government does not start from scratch. The measures that were passed in the fall (tax on marriages, on the solar panels, niches plane, etc.). Will yield 2.4 billion in 2012. But we'll have to do much more. There is another month, the government did not request such an effort to households and businesses. He planned to take samples of only 3 billion. With 2.4 billion already in the pipeline, the step to take was minimal.But since the degradation of "AAA" rating from the United States, France finds itself under pressure from the markets. Even if it borrows at low levels (2.74% at ten years), a sign of confidence that it continues to generate, France must do everything to protect his note. For if it were lowered, the state should borrow at higher rates. According to the Court of Auditors, an increase of one point would increase the debt burden of $ 2 billion the first year. To prevent a runaway cost of debt, the government should not deviate from its route.

Increase in the social package

Paris has pledged to reduce its public deficit to 5.7% of GDP in 2011 and 4.6% in 2012. This objective was particularly complicated since the Insee reported zero growth in the second quarter. Bercy forecasts an increase of 2% of GDP in 2011 and 2.25% in 2012 now seem too optimistic.On average, economists expect now on a 1.4% growth next year. However, less growth means less tax revenue and more spending for the state, the social security and local authorities. Without necessarily announcing Wednesday a revised its growth forecasts, the government is obliged, if he wants to keep its deficit targets, to take austerity measures …

Increase in the social package for businesses, new plane and lower overall ceiling of niches, penknife devices ultramarine and real estate … the tracks are not lacking. The government also provides measures for the social security system, not to mention taxing very high incomes as suggested on Wednesday, Maurice Levy, president of Publicis and the Association of Private Enterprises (Afep), in an article in Le Monde ."We need efforts that will be requested to the French are fairly distributed," assured the same day Valerie Pécresse on Europe 1. The measures adopted will be included in budget 2012.

France can she get into the spiral of Greece, where budget cuts exacerbate the recession, which in turn widens the gap? A priori not. This year, increases in taxes, resulting from the measures passed in the fall, reached $ 12 billion. Without destabilizing the country.

Real estate: the cropped Scellier

Before the crisis, Bercy was considering reducing benefits. The pressure is greatest.

• Law Scellier

The niche Scellier reduces its tax by investing in rental real estate. It was expected that the tax reduction equal to 22% of the investment in 2011 reaches 18% in 2012.The reduction could fall to 15%.

• Ready to zero +

There are plans to reintroduce a means test for the loan (PTZ), in order to focus on vulnerable households.

• Capital gains on real estate

The capital gain on the sale of a principal residence will remain tax exempt. For other assets, the gain is taxed at 19%, plus 12.3% social. However, there is a reduction (10% per year after five years in prison) that applies to the capital gain and will disappear for undeveloped land for building. It is also the question of decline (eg 5%) for other goods.Another track: the system of reduction of the gain disappears for the payment of social security contributions.

Niches: plane and down the ceiling

The tax loopholes will undergo a new movement of the plane after the last year which affected 22 devices (Scellier, actions overseas, the tax credit for environmental equipment in the house). The rate of tax reduction was reduced by 10%: a rate of 50% was increased to 45%, a rate of 25% to 22% … The measure, however, has yet to be felt, because the first plane applies to the income tax paid in 2012, sitting on the revenues of 2011. The government planned to meet the plane in 2011 (eg 15%) and pass a new tax on plane sitting on the revenues of 2012.
Widely used devices, such as overseas benefits or tax credits for equipment of the house will still be trimmed.MPs want all the niches are planed. Others will disappear. In addition, the overall ceiling of niches, set at 6% of income over 18,000 euros, will be lowered.

Companies: rising social package

Social package, paid by companies on the profit-sharing and employee savings, should be increased from 6% to 8%. Expected gain: 400 million euros. Since its inception in 2009, the government increased the fee by 2 points every year! Systems loss carry-on prior and subsequent, which limit the corporate tax should be reduced. They benefit primarily to large companies but the government wants to rebalance the tax burden with the small. The carry-back would
limited to one year. And to carry forward losses from the profits would be capped.In Germany, the losses charged can not exceed 60% of the profit. However, the idea of ​​limiting the deductibility of loan interest is difficult to implement.

Tax on very wealthy households

The government pledged in the spring to tax high incomes, and a working group must report its findings in the fall. Two tracks are at this stage on the table to non-deductible from corporate income tax payments "extravagant" or create a new tax paid by very wealthy households. The latter option holds the rope in the government because it has the support of parliamentarians. Gilles Carrez, the rapporteur of the budget UMP
in the Assembly, propose to tax at a rate of 1% or 2% revenues exceeding one million euros per year. But Peter wants Méhaignerie the new tax applies from 150,000 euros to 200,000 euros in annual income for a couple.The lively debates ahead!

Other tracks: capital gains on the hot seat

Gilles Carrez wants the taxation of life insurance is carried over the water each year on their earnings potential, while households are now taxed when withdrawn at a variable rate depending on the length of detention ( 7.5% after eight years). Another idea: adjust the taxation of life insurance, whether it is placed in shares or products without risk. The UMP Jérôme Chartier wants to create an additional ceiling on tax loopholes, reducing to 50% of tax due from the advantage of niches. But Bercy is not favorable. Finally, many parliamentarians call for the removal of reliefs on capital gains from stocks and bonds (third year in excess of five years from 2012).

Shortly before opening, chewing Americans were expected small decline, but volatility remains very high, the index futures may return at any moment, like the indices themselves. Shortly before noon Paris time, the index futures Standard & Poor's 500 and Nasdaq 100 yielded respectively 0.3% to 1165 points, and 0.37% at 2150 points.

On Thursday evening, U.S. markets have rebounded sharply, welcoming new listings weekly fewer than expected. European markets had also enjoyed the news, closing up vigorously.

The pressure remains strong this weekend

Other statistics on the agenda for this Friday, may well generate a few responses. Retail sales for the month of July will be unveiled at 2:30 p.m., in fact, before the start of the session Eats United.Investors await with interest the first estimate of consumer confidence from the University of Michigan for the month of August, from 3:55 p.m..

Pressure remains high on world markets. Lack of macroeconomic and really good news in the absence of major business publications Friday, this weekend is likely to be overshadowed by even more obvious signs of a weakening of growth. The sovereign debt crisis, and severe drops in banking stocks recorded this week, amid rumors of bankruptcy, particularly in France, will affect the trend no fax payday loans.Asian stock markets have already finished down on Friday morning.

In this context agrave exacerbated by a volatile market, investors are going to look at publications such as retail sales, which should also benefit from a slight rebound in auto sales?

Difficult to answer this question. For analysts Aurel BGC, "while" so far the timing of publications of macroeconomic indicators has been poor, a reaction, positive or negative, this indicator would in any case an early normalization "of market behavior. Excluding cars, the indicators are still available for now more mixed.

On the corporate side, the U.S. airline AMR, parent of American Airlines, announced plans to separate its regional affiliate American Eagle.A document filed with the stock market regulator described a "possible separation" with the American Eagle to introduce the stock market separately. American Airlines is still bound for nine years in its subsidiary. American Eagle will continue initially to operate 281 aircraft for American Airlines, which will wind down its cooperation in 2012.

Firefighters desperately looking for financial markets. For a month, the Cac 40, which recorded its ninth session Thursday consecutive decline, has lost 17%! And the stock market this week might conclude on the tenth. Shortly after opening, the stock market index fell by 2.09% to 3250.95 points.

On other European financial centers, the atmosphere is also depressed: the Footsie-100 from the London Stock Exchange 2.58% to 5254.11 loose points, the DAX 30 Frankfurt Stock Exchange fall 3.85% to 6167.96 points, the FTSE MIB in Milan leaves 3.44% to 15,573.84 points, the Madrid Ibex 35 yields 1.96% to 8516.20 points, the Bel 20 in Brussels is down 3, 61% to 2143.45 points.

In anticipation of U.S. employment figures

That can extinguish the fire which engulfed global stock markets? The President of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, it is tested in an exercise it is broken.Without having reassured, he did not panic by not clarifying his intentions on debt buybacks. "It's the return of the behavior of crisis," says Aurel BGC in it.

Consequence: the main European stock markets fell 3% to 4%, Wall Street plunged 5%, Asian stock markets slumped 2% to 5%, oil is trading around 85 dollars a barrel and not to vicinity of $ 100 as there are about ten days, and gold flies to 1700 dollars per ounce. A scenario that is not yet catastrophic according Volokhine Gregori, president of Meeschaert Capital Markets. "We're not on a" bear market "(bear market over a long period), he says.We will be there when the stock markets lose 20% per week. "

After the publication of interim results of the banks, the speech of Jean-Claude Trichet, investors will monitor closely the figures for employment and unemployment in the United States for the month of July (1430). "This does not fundamentally change the market trends, said Grigory Volokhine Business on BFM.

The trade deficit declined in June

Most investors expect to know if there will be further monetary easing to support the U.S. economy and if European countries are finally going their act together. " Same story on the side of Aurel BGC. "Even a figure in line with expectations should not prevent markets brooding, said Christian Parisot, chief economist at Aurel BGC.Hopefully a little bounce if it exceeds the expectations. "

Other macroeconomic news: the trade deficit of France. He was greatly reduced in June to 5.598 billion euros, after 6.415 billion in May, according to data released Friday by Customs.

On the corporate side, the last two banks issued after market close on Thursday night: Natixis and Dexia.

Natixis: -3.29% to 2.676 euros

Natixis on Thursday posted a net profit above expectations in the second quarter thanks to a sharp increase in the contribution of results from regional banks of its parent BPCE (People's Bank – Savings Bank).

Dexia: -6.88% to 1.54 euros

Dexia announced the heaviest loss in its history, a performance due to both the sale of a portfolio of toxic assets – centerpiece of its restructuring plan – and its contribution to the aid plan on sovereign debt Greek.

Carrefour: 18.56 euros stable

Carrefour announced a new reorganization of its management, including replacing its chief financial officer, when the group just straightening operations in France and suffered a major strategic setback in Brazil.

LVMH: -2.30% to 112.55 euros

LVMH said Thursday it had received approval from Consob, the Italian stock market authority, for offering Italian jeweler Bulgari on which he announced the takeover in March.

Vicat: -5.47% to 44.24 euros

Vicat said Thursday expect a slight reduction of its operating margin in 2011 due to the revolution in Egypt, the rising energy costs and start-up costs of factories in India.

Courted by the stock exchanges around the world, Chinese private enterprises would they be about to fall into disgrace? After several scandals revealed in recent weeks, rating agencies go up to the plate one after the other. Fitch Ratings yesterday estimated that fraud cases were probably only just begun in the Middle Kingdom.

The U.S. agency has assessed 35 companies listed on the Shanghai and is ready to review its portfolio of Chinese. She considers their standard accounting and trading in Shanghai as many "key indicators of their weakness."

Although the Chinese accounting standards, adopted in 2006, are very close to IFRS (international financial-reporting standards), audit firms have not the confidence of investors, and obviously not the rating agencies which still largely prefer the four major (Ernst & Young, KPMG, PriceWaterhouseCoopers and Deloitte & Touche).The Fitch report said that companies from these large firms "would be more difficult to publish than those fraudulent reports go through domestic companies."

Fitch does not mean to review the scores awarded to different companies observed, adding that they "are already taking into account the context of a Chinese legal environment and an under-developed documentation, practices and specific business low corporate governance practices. "

Nevertheless, this case is the latest blow to Chinese companies. Last week, Moody's, which was hoisted the "red flags" of sixty-one companies that note. Fitch's rival evoked particular the opacity caused by a family shareholding in forty-three of them.

For several weeks, scandals involving Chinese companies listed multiply.Everything was packed in June, with the case Sino-Forest the title of which collapsed in Toronto. Since February, the business of handling accounts or misrepresentation of results had already forced many companies to delist in the U.S..

Loss of confidence

In total, nearly forty companies have shown irregularities, not the United States. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Constable of U.S. markets, has established a special committee to investigate these Chinese companies.

Hong Kong is no exception.The financial analysis firm Dealogic calculates that Chinese private enterprises were canceled or postponed them of trading, the equivalent of $ 3.8 billion.

Finally, there is a shift among investors who gradually give more confidence in the state, whose sovereign debt is rated A + by Fitch and Aa3 by Moody's, as private companies.

The health of European banks, crucial to the future of the euro zone, is good, has hammered the EBA. This was based on the highly anticipated results of stress tests to measure the strength of credit even if prolonged recession. The supervisor had demanded a hard capital ratio of 5% the EU average was 7.7%. Of 91 institutions screened in 21 countries, eight failed the exam. The eight former "need 2.5 billion euros to build," said ABB.

Like last year, the figure is much lower in the eyes of the challenges faced by European banks, battered by the markets in recent weeks. These data, however, take into account some 60 billion euros to recapitalize by many actors involved European banks since the beginning of the year.Without this, 20 banks have also failed the tests. Above all, 16 facilities succeed narrowly, with a hard capital ratio below 6% which presents itself as the next steps to achieve.

Despite its efforts to restructure its banking sector, Spain realized, like last year, the worst performance: 5 Iberian institutions are recalibrated, including four savings banks, and seven others remain in a tie. Two Greek banks – tested on six – have also failed. Finally, an Austrian completes the list of poor performers.

France is doing well, What are the opportunity to the new Minister of Economy Baroin to praise "the strength of the universal banking model" in French. For its part, Italy, jostled for a week in the markets because of its huge debt, also managed a shot together.Italian banks had greatly strengthened their capital in recent months.

In Portugal, a weak link in the euro area with Ireland and Greece, no banking group is sticky. The Central Bank of Lisbon recalls, however, that the first two private groups in the country, Banco Commercial Português and Banco Espirito Santo proceed in three months to "increases in capital or asset sales."

European Summit on 21

It will take a few days now to say whether this exercise much more ambitious than the 2010 vintage will have served its purpose: to reassure the markets. Time for analysts to compile the exceptional amount of data disclosed by the banking community. In particular, their exposure to sovereign debt will be viewed under the microscope.Even before the publication of its results, check-up was considered inadequate in the trading rooms because it does not test the scenario of a failure of Greece, although its potential impact is partly taken into account.

A fault is the most likely outcome for investors, as European states do not find agreement. The prospect of a summit looming on Thursday for "the financial stability of the euro area and the future financing of the Greek," should restore confidence. Until then, the terms of a second rescue stumbled on participation with the private creditors, as required by Berlin.

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