An influential economist predicted the explosion of the Eurozone
Posted by adminWhile the rating agency Standard & Poor's downgraded three notches note of Greece who becomes the country with the lowest rated in the world, the eminent economist Nouriel Roubini sees the end of the eurozone. In an article published in the Financial Times, the man who announced the financial crisis of 2008 estimated that countries of the European periphery abandon the euro within five years.
In the eyes of Nouriel Roubini, the debt crisis that weakens current euro area highlights the flaws in this monetary union. In fact, the euro zone has never been an "optimum currency area", ie a group of countries has any interest in sharing a single currency. There is indeed always been too strong and competitive economic differences between countries in the euro area.The founding fathers of the euro area, however, hoped that the differences between fiscal, monetary and exchange rates are offset by an acceleration of structural reforms within the euro zone countries. These measures would then have enabled the countries of the eurozone converge.
Without economic convergence, the euro area is doomed to failure
But "the reality is quite different," says Nouriel Roubini. Following the establishment of a common monetary policy, countries are folded on the weapon budget to adjust their economic policies. Very different policies have been implemented within the eurozone. Consequently, the lack of fiscal discipline in countries like Greece and Portugal involved in the birth of speculative bubbles in other countries like Spain or Ireland. And finally, the peripheral countries have become less competitive.
Economist reaffirms that to work, creating a currency area must be accompanied by a fiscal policy even as the establishment of supranational sources of income or the issuance of sovereign bonds Commons. In the absence of economic convergence, the euro area is doomed to failure, according to the economist.
Thus, Nouriel Roubini believes that there is now a way to restore the competitiveness of peripheral countries: leaving the euro, return of national currencies and depreciation. Such a scenario seems inconceivable today, is the economist who said that nothing says that in five years this idea has not gained ground, especially if the economies of peripheral countries are stagnating. Unless the idea of a Euro reaches more federal drilling, some European leaders call for that greater European integration.
ALSO READ:
"Save Greece, save Europe
"The battle of the ECB for more European governance
"€ Zone: Trichet wants reform