International & World Report

It was an open secret. The six countries of the euro area currently receiving a rating of "AAA" (Germany, Austria, Finland, France, Luxembourg and the Netherlands), everyone knew that the Hexagon was the most fragile. And for two main reasons, as the visible one and the other as the nose on your face.

First is the only country of the "club of six" not to balance its accounts public, when we ignore the burden of debt (annual interest payments to our creditors). France continues to display a "primary deficit" in the words properly. This shows that the remediation work is far from complete.Note, for example, that Italy is now in a situation of "primary surplus", even though the peninsula remains weighed down by debt levels far higher ransom of a history of fiscal mismanagement even older than ours.

Second handicap, and distinguishes us from the other five members of the club "triple A" France is the only one to record a deficit of its external accounts. The imbalance between our imports and our exports attests an alarming lack of competitiveness. Clearly, if the French economy was not part of a monetary union, it would now interest to devalue its currency. She would even be forced by the markets.

But that Paris could lose its valuable in the future "triple A" and it would be first across the euro area which would be weakened. Including Germany. Across the Rhine, there is concern especially as a contagion effect.Professor Hans-Werner Sinn, president of the Ifo economic institute, also highly critical of the current functioning of the euro area, just bring a vivid demonstration quick pay day loan.

A model to redefine

In a recent study ("The Ten Commandments to save the euro"), he notes that the cost of insurance on the ten-year Bunds has increased tenfold since the crisis of the euro, to 1.2%. The fault lies, he says, to become burdens on Germany, the main funder of the rescue plans for its partners in the Euroland. This bill gets heavier a little more if France was itself degraded. The warning from Moody's recovery even more debate on French economic policy. Designating Paris as the weak link of the "triple A" rating agency highlights the twin deficits, internal and external, which is our brand.And these two imbalances, the most distressing is certainly the failure of "Made in France" to find its place under the sun of the euro.

Compared to its neighbors "triple A" – true "mark area" within the monetary union – France stands out on another point. Never in modern history since the First World War, it has succeeded in establishing a social contract where competitiveness is central. Such as the famous Wassenaar agreement of 1982 in the Netherlands, to exit the eternal Germanic model, in fact that of all Northern Europe. Rather than attempt to "re-enchant the French dream", which has ceased to be missing the point, here is the challenge.

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European stock markets resumed a little height on Wednesday morning, after the statements of Olli Rehn. In Paris the CAC 40 1.34% advance to 2888.30 points after climbing more than 2.5% in early trade.

Elsewhere in Europe, ahead of London and Frankfurt 1.43% from 1.47%. European Commissioner for Economic Affairs has indeed mentioned in an interview with the Financial Times, a European plan to recapitalize banks. Reassuring news while the Franco-Belgian bank Dexia, the first victim of the debt crisis must be dismantled."We share a growing opinion that we need a concerted, coordinated in Europe," he said, "the capital of European banks should be strengthened to give them a safety margin and so reduce uncertainty "in markets.

Wall Street has offered a nice rebound late in the session after the publication of these declarations, against a background of technical rebound. Europe follows the trend, despite the announcement of the degradation of the Italian note by Moody's.

In terms of macroeconomic indicators, two figures for the euro area will be published on Wednesday: the retail trade for August and the second estimate of GDP in the second quarter.In the U.S., the ISM index of activity in services is expected in September to 16 hours and the weekly crude oil inventories at 16:30.

Oil markets, fell sharply Tuesday after the courses are starting to rebound on Wednesday morning in Asian electronic trading: the Brent North Sea crude for November delivery gained 1.67 dollars to 101.46 dollars. A barrel of "light sweet crude" for delivery in November was appreciating his side of 1.91 dollars to 77.58 dollars.

The banking sector up

Following statements by Olli Rehn, the banking sector will be particularly followed on Wednesday. In particular, Dexia remains a key concern when it was dismantled has been approved. The Franco-Belgian bank has confirmed the creation of a "bad bank" combining its risk assets.The European Banking Authority (EBA) also discuss the situation of the bank on Wednesday.

Investors engaged in an intense hunt for bargains in the banking sector. BNP Paribas advance of 6.20%, 5.38% of Societe Generale and Credit Agricole of 6.34%, despite the deterioration of recommendation from Goldman Sachs on the sector payday loan companies.

Indeed, Brock U.S. on Tuesday lowered its price targets of several French banks: it is reduced from 68 to 58 euros to BNP Paribas for 9.70 euros to 6.90 euros and Credit Agricole 3.60 to 2.80 for Natixis. Societe Generale is seen removed from the list of réfence European bank, which reduces its recommendation on the title of "buy" from "neutral."The price target is reduced from 45 to 32 euros.

The values ​​of energy and insurance markets in the eye

The energy sector will also be monitored: the CGT federation of energy called because the employees of the gas and electricity in a strike on October 11 as part of a national day of mobilization under five French unions .

Axa (2.39% to 9.20 euros) indicated that the depressed stock market could affect its objectives in 2015 but ensures that its balance sheet remains strong at the end of September.The insurer says remain "fully engaged" in achieving its objectives and it reiterates its policy of dividend distribution

In addition, U.S. funds TPG and KKR and the Caisse de depot et placement du Quebec have submitted preliminary offers for the acquisition of Axa Privaty Equity (AXA PE), the division of equity sold by Axa, according to La Tribune.

The reinsurer Scor (0.93% to 15.78 euros) also confirmed the financial goals of its strategic plan by 2013, especially a return on equity of 10% above the risk-free rate and credit rating Level "AA".Scor still expects a gross premium volume amounted to over EUR 10 billion in 2013, an annual growth rate of 14% between 2010 and 2013 as against 9% previously.

Gecina (-3.05% to 61.05 euros) announced thanking its general manager, Christophe Clamageran, because of differences over priorities in the implementation of the strategy of the real estate group. Bernard Michel, Chairman, is CEO of the company.

Wendel (4.48% to 45.05 euros) said Tuesday it has completed the acquisition of Mecatherm, the global leader in equipment for the bakery industry valued at around 170 million euros as part of the operation.

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Trinity Place is not exactly the Tahrir Square, but the mood is not very different: the protesters want to express their ras-le-bol against those in power. United States, it is against the bankers and Wall Street financiers that discontent is rising. A popular movement calling itself "Mind Wall Street" apparent since Saturday in the heart of the financial district after taking the form of social networks.

Demonstrators protest hearing to December against what they denounced as the culture of "money", "greed" and "corruption" of Wall Street and asking Barack Obama to establish a commission putting "an end to influence of Wall Street on politics in Washington. "

Saturday, those with transforming the world capital of finance in place Tahrir U.S. were only slightly more than a thousand.Sunday, they were more than half and Monday, hundreds of "outraged", especially young people, continued to protest under heavy police surveillance. Some, including the long-term unemployed, a new phenomenon in the United States-had even slept the night on benches. We are far from the ambition of the movement: "20,000 people together, invade all of southern Manhattan, set up tents, mobile kitchens, barricades and hold peaceful Wall Street for months," and claims are at least different – from Tax the rich (heard by Barack Obama) to better education and greater respect for the environment through support for Palestine.

Social unrest

But the move reflects a real social unrest in a country where social inequality exacerbated by the crisis are becoming more glaring as Washington is incapable of falling unemployment rate below 9%. Ironically, New York is not Cairo and it is unclear how the movement could grow against the police operation from the authorities. The New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, known for his patience limited to public expressions of discontent, summarized its limits: "If they want to protest, they have the right, we will be happy to allow them to do so in specific locations (…) they can demonstrate provided they do respect the rights of those who do not show. "

Monday for the third consecutive day, the police strictly controlled the entrance to Wall Street financiers on presentation of their business card, to the delight of some employees of companies like Deutsche Bank and Bank of New York. During the weekend, police had cleverly divided the pedestrian crossings on Wall Street so that demonstrators can never enter. All banks are not installed on Wall Street. JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup and Bank of America, which announced the dismissal of 30,000 people in the coming years, have their headquarters earlier in Manhattan. In New York, the police presence was strengthened this week due to the expected arrival of heads of state from more than 120 countries, including that of Barack Obama on Monday.

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Barack Obama has heard Warren Buffett. One month after the American billionaire's call to raise taxes of the richest in the United States, Barack Obama will propose on Monday during a speech at the White House – expected at 16:30 French time – a special tax on the income of taxpayers earning over a million dollars a year (about 725,000 euros). The U.S. president should not indicate the precise tax rate that it intends to apply or the amount it hoped to achieve by this. But according to The New York Times, the tax on millionaires only for 0.3% of taxpayers, less than 450,000 of the 144 million returns recorded in 2010.

Dubbed the "rule Buffett," this tax is in terms of reducing the budget deficit that the U.S. president must explain to Congress Monday.Its goal? Ensure that the wealthiest taxpayers pay at least as much taxes as middle-class homes. This is not the case, as pointed out by Warren Buffett this summer, because of certain provisions of the Tax Code.

1200 billion dollars in savings to find

Thus, capital income such as dividends or interest earned by the fund managers are taxed at 15%, while labor incomes are between 10 to 35% payday loans. "While the poorer classes and middle classes are fighting for us in Afghanistan, while most Americans struggle to make ends meet month we mega-wealthy continue to benefit from special tax exemptions," wrote Warren Buffett in an article published last month in The New York Times.

This tax should allow Barack Obama to approach a little more of his electoral base of the Democratic Party criticized him his "gifts" to tax the wealthiest people. The Republican majority in the House of Representatives have already announced that he would vote no tax increase.

While the United States must find 1.2 trillion dollars in savings by the end of the year, Barack Obama warned on Saturday the Americans that they would provide "pull their weight" to reduce the budget deficit. And pressed again, the Congress, including Republicans, to adopt his plan for the use of 447 billion dollars. "More games or impasses. More division or delay, "he said during his weekly radio address.

Firefighters desperately looking for financial markets. For a month, the Cac 40, which recorded its ninth session Thursday consecutive decline, has lost 17%! And the stock market this week might conclude on the tenth. Shortly after opening, the stock market index fell by 2.09% to 3250.95 points.

On other European financial centers, the atmosphere is also depressed: the Footsie-100 from the London Stock Exchange 2.58% to 5254.11 loose points, the DAX 30 Frankfurt Stock Exchange fall 3.85% to 6167.96 points, the FTSE MIB in Milan leaves 3.44% to 15,573.84 points, the Madrid Ibex 35 yields 1.96% to 8516.20 points, the Bel 20 in Brussels is down 3, 61% to 2143.45 points.

In anticipation of U.S. employment figures

That can extinguish the fire which engulfed global stock markets? The President of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, it is tested in an exercise it is broken.Without having reassured, he did not panic by not clarifying his intentions on debt buybacks. "It's the return of the behavior of crisis," says Aurel BGC in it.

Consequence: the main European stock markets fell 3% to 4%, Wall Street plunged 5%, Asian stock markets slumped 2% to 5%, oil is trading around 85 dollars a barrel and not to vicinity of $ 100 as there are about ten days, and gold flies to 1700 dollars per ounce. A scenario that is not yet catastrophic according Volokhine Gregori, president of Meeschaert Capital Markets. "We're not on a" bear market "(bear market over a long period), he says.We will be there when the stock markets lose 20% per week. "

After the publication of interim results of the banks, the speech of Jean-Claude Trichet, investors will monitor closely the figures for employment and unemployment in the United States for the month of July (1430). "This does not fundamentally change the market trends, said Grigory Volokhine Business on BFM.

The trade deficit declined in June

Most investors expect to know if there will be further monetary easing to support the U.S. economy and if European countries are finally going their act together. " Same story on the side of Aurel BGC. "Even a figure in line with expectations should not prevent markets brooding, said Christian Parisot, chief economist at Aurel BGC.Hopefully a little bounce if it exceeds the expectations. "

Other macroeconomic news: the trade deficit of France. He was greatly reduced in June to 5.598 billion euros, after 6.415 billion in May, according to data released Friday by Customs.

On the corporate side, the last two banks issued after market close on Thursday night: Natixis and Dexia.

Natixis: -3.29% to 2.676 euros

Natixis on Thursday posted a net profit above expectations in the second quarter thanks to a sharp increase in the contribution of results from regional banks of its parent BPCE (People's Bank – Savings Bank).

Dexia: -6.88% to 1.54 euros

Dexia announced the heaviest loss in its history, a performance due to both the sale of a portfolio of toxic assets – centerpiece of its restructuring plan – and its contribution to the aid plan on sovereign debt Greek.

Carrefour: 18.56 euros stable

Carrefour announced a new reorganization of its management, including replacing its chief financial officer, when the group just straightening operations in France and suffered a major strategic setback in Brazil.

LVMH: -2.30% to 112.55 euros

LVMH said Thursday it had received approval from Consob, the Italian stock market authority, for offering Italian jeweler Bulgari on which he announced the takeover in March.

Vicat: -5.47% to 44.24 euros

Vicat said Thursday expect a slight reduction of its operating margin in 2011 due to the revolution in Egypt, the rising energy costs and start-up costs of factories in India.

The fifteen-minute speech of Barack Obama addressed the U.S., not markets. The objective of the President was to convince his fellow citizens that the right of the Republican Party is responsible for the impasse. He asked the rest of his listeners to call their senator or their Republican Congress asking them to compromise.

Barack Obama said the disaster would be a failure to pay the Treasury on Tuesday, if this compromise was not reached. The economic crisis that would result, he said, entirely caused by the political dysfunction in Washington.

Obama maintains its position

For the chief executive of the United States, the problem of excessive indebtedness of the country is the result of at least ten years of lax fiscal policy. First, because of excessive spending and irresponsible tax cut decided in George W. Bush.He then explains the explosion of debt since taking office by the need to save America from a very serious recession.

Nothing he outlined in his speech Monday night was not already stated in previous days by Barack Obama. From this point of view, it may disappoint the market. The White House put on the pressure of public opinion to split the Republicans in two.

He tries to rally the Republican pragmatists to what he calls "a balanced approach" to reducing debt. That is a major plan that includes both tax increases and cuts in public spending.

However, he supported the plan proposed by the Democratic majority leader of the Senate, Harry Reid. It abandons the idea of ​​raising taxes.It offers a massive and immediate increase in the debt cap, with "savings" of the same order.

Republicans denounce economies sham

John Boehner responded Monday night's speech by Barack Obama. Photo credits: NICHOLAS KAMM / AFP

Busy schedule these days. The successor to Dominique Strauss-Kahn to head the International Monetary Fund could indeed be announced this Tuesday – Christine Lagarde is the favorite -. But it is Greece that all eyes remain fixed, while growing and sy strikes may last until the vote of the austerity plan by the Greek Parliament which must take place by Thursday. However, it seems, according to analysts, the markets are betting on good news. While the euro area would, as a precaution, already developed a backup in case of a negative vote.

In the wake of Wall Street Monday closed sharply higher, the Paris Stock Exchange has expanded its gains yesterday, Tuesday, in the morning, but irregularly.After winning up to 1%, the Cac 40ne accounted for more than 0.77% in late morning, above the 3825 points, and 0.55% in mid-session at 3817.47 points.

On the currency markets, the euro declined slightly against the greenback mid-term, to 1.4275 dollar.

As for oil prices, a barrel of "light sweet crude" for delivery in August gained 0.29% to 90.87 even dollars in mid-session.

Housing: housing starts and building permits up

On the macroeconomic front, the number of starts of new homes increased by 11.4,% year on year in France for the period from March to May, while the number of building permits for these homes has increased 4.3%, according to figures from the Ministry of Housing.

At 18 hours, will be published the figures for registered job seekers and offers collected by the job center in May.

In the U.S., the S & P / Case-Shiller of home prices in April (15 hours) and consumer confidence in June (16 hours) are also expected.

Carrefour jumps, Casino unscrews Accor (3.01% to 29.44 euros) held in mid-session the head of the CAC40, while Alstom (-1.43% to 41.08 euros) was last in the index star. Alstom, which takes 14 hours to its General Assembly on Tuesday.Against a background of optimism about the outcome of the parliamentary debate on the budget austerity in Greece, the banking sector performs well: Crédit Agricole climbed 2.50% to 9.87 euros, Societe Generale is 1.54% to 38.25 euros, BNP Paribas rose 1.10% to 50.71 euros and Natixis gained 1.04% to 3.29 euros.

EADS: + 0.09% to 22.07 euros

China could control dozens of Airbus during a visit of Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao Tuesday in Berlin, said on Monday sources familiar with the matter.

Carrefour: + 2.16% to 27.02 euros; Casino: -5.10% to 62.54 euros

The distribution group received Monday a "proposal" to create Gama Brazilian joint venture equally owned by both groups in Brazil, the latter to eventually become a shareholder of Carrefour.Casino intends to disturb their alliance, saying the project "hostile", prepared in secret, but against which "has the power to oppose."

In addition, the rating agency Fitch has downgraded the French retailer Carrefour up a notch to BBB +, along with a negative outlook, expressing concern the pace of recovery activities and French pressure from shareholders , said in a statement Tuesday.

Thales: -0.41% to 28.27 euros

According to an internal study cited by the Tribune, the electronics group shows a drastic decrease of 13% of customer satisfaction since the arrival of the new direction.Some regret the centralization of applications and other lack of attention to their concerns.

Lagardère: + 0.92% to 28 euros

Analysts at the Swiss bank UBS raised their recommendation on the title to "buy" against "neutral" before.

Trigano: -4.08% to 22.10 euros

The specialist for caravans and motorhomes has said it expects a sales growth and results in 2011, following growth of 8.2% of its business in the third quarter, which covers the period from March to May

Teleperformance: -6.84% to 19.41 euros

The global call center cut its operating margin target in 2011 because of the recent slowdown in its business in the United States.

BioAlliance Pharma: + 1.83% to 6.12 euros

The biotechnology company said it had filed with the French Drug Agency an application for leave to Phase III clinical trial for Livatag, treatment of primary liver cancer.

CGG Veritas: + 0.06% to 23.2 euros

The group signed with the oil services group Bourbon marine services to offshore oil and gas a charter contract for five years to six new vessels support and assistance to its seismic surveys.

The response of government was quick. Thursday afternoon, members of the IEA (International Energy Agency), which includes industrialized countries, have decided to use their strategic oil stocks. One way to compensate for the lack of production Jamahiriya, the latter being blocked since February. A few hours later, the Energy Minister, Eric Besson said in a statement he wanted to Total "that any drop in oil prices is reflected at the pump." A wish welcomed by the CEO of Total, says Besson, who will make the same request to other fuel dispensers.

The decision of the IEA is not surprising. The agency warned in May that it was ready to use "all means" in case of persistent lack of production.Specifically, it will bring to market 2 million barrels per day for a month, compared to 1 low fee payday loans.6 million barrels of Libyan production. PAGE The United States will provide half of Europe about 30%. France will contribute in proportion to its consumption, or 3.2 million barrels, equivalent to about 2% of French strategic stocks.

To some analysts, this is a "rifle-shot." Coupled with the renewed concerns about global growth, the announcement Thursday caused a decline in oil prices – about $ 8 a barrel in London and $ 6 in New York.

Total impact "of course" at the pump a possible drop in oil prices, said Friday in an AFP spokesman for the group. "The question is, how long must the stocks are issued, it can not be done in one hour to another," she said.

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This is a first. Nearly 1000 makers and observers of the Internet will meet in Paris tomorrow and Wednesday to participate in e-G8 Forum. Sizing of the digital economy, as Mark Zuckerberg, the founder of social networking site Facebook and Eric Schmidt, Google's president, made the trip.

They rub shoulders patterns of media, such as Australian-American tycoon Rupert Murdoch, the chairman of the New York Times Arthur Sulzberger Jr. The conference will also host the rising stars of the Web as the creator of good plans Groupon Andrew Mason and Mikael Hed, Director General of Rovio, the publisher of mobile gaming success Angry Birds.The world of finance will ambassadors Niklas Zennstrom, CEO and cofounder of the fund Atomico Skype, and Sean Parker, Founders Fund partner today, Co-founder of Napster and Facebook, and bad boy of Web embodied by Justin Timberlake in The Social Network.

This casting will demonstrate the importance of the event. It was proposed by Nicolas Sarkozy, who chairs the G8 this year. For the first time, an Internet discussion has been put on the agenda of the G8, which meets on May 26 and 27 in Deauville. E-G8 Forum should provide a framework for exchanges between heads of state.These will be based on a paper presented at the next G8 e-Forum, which might detail a series of reflections and proposals on major issues of the Internet.

The conference program addresses broad issues as "The Internet and economic growth," which will discuss among others John Donahoe, eBay's CEO, Eric Schmidt, and Christine Lagarde, Minister of Finance. The debate "Internet and Society meet Andrew Mason, Sheryl Sandberg, Facebook's number 2, and Jimmy Wales, founder of the collaborative encyclopedia Wikipedia.To make proposals on these discussions, stakeholders were asked to come up with key ideas that they wished to submit to the representatives of the G8.

Private funding

Issues closer to the everyday concerns of internet entrepreneurs and internet will be discussed in workshops: financing for start-up, freedom of expression and privacy, mobile issues, information sharing and value, e-government … All these exchanges are broadcast live over the Internet, will be summarized by rapporteurs and provide the basis for a "message for Deauville."

The conference was organized in record time by Publicis, whose chief executive, Maurice Levy, was given the mandate in February.Advantage: via its subsidiary Publicis Live, the communications group organizes many events which already meet the tenors of the Web and media, such as the Monaco Media Forum, the Abu Dhabi Media Summit and Davos. These are the links forged during these meetings that enabled convincing, snatching, Mark Zuckerberg to participate in the forum. He has confirmed his arrival a few days before the opening of e-G8 Forum.

In return, Publicis has not been able to rely on public funding to mount the e-G8, whose budget is estimated at 3 million. The organizer has therefore appealed to private financing from a dozen sponsors, including Orange, Vivendi, eBay, Google, Capgemini, Iliad, Microsoft and Alcatel-Lucent.Four other finance a dinner tomorrow evening at the Louvre, in which 350 handpicked guests were invited.

The most important guests of the e-G8 forum:

• Rupert Murdoch – CEO of News Corporation

The media mogul had anticipated the rise of social networking by buying MySpace in 2005. It now relies on paid content online. "Aggregators and plagiarists will soon have to pay a price for our content. If we do not take advantage of the current movement towards paid content, the kleptomaniac triumph "

• Mark Zuckerberg – Founder and CEO of Facebook

At 27, the young prodigy of the Web is the 52nd World fortune, according to Forbes. More than 650 million Internet users have joined the social network he founded in 2004 at Harvard. "The social norm (of privacy, Ed) has simply evolved over time.People are really accustomed not only to share more information, different but also more openly and with more people "

• Jeff Bezos – Founder and CEO of Amazon. Com

It has revolutionized e-commerce by creating Amazon in 1994. He is now going to online media, from books to video. "The last nugget of gold rush has disappeared. With innovation, there is no last nugget. Each update creates new questions and new opportunities "

• Jimmy Wales – Co-founder of Wikipedia

His collaborative encyclopedia celebrates its 10th anniversary this year. It has 18 million articles written and edited by Internet volunteers. "I think MySpace is doomed, I give them another two years … I think Facebook is the next Microsoft, for better or for worse.It is an incredible company that will do much good and bad things "

• Eric Schmidt – Google Chief Executive

DG Internet Group from 2001 to 2011, Eric Schmidt has handed over to Larry Page in April. He remains in charge of acquisitions, partnerships and institutional relationships. "Today your phone knows where you are, and to some extent where you go. Ultimately, your mobile does what he does best is to say, to remember everything and make proposals. You can be a better human and have a good time "

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