International & World Report

The job market is doing less harm to the United States. Published Friday by the Labor Department, the official estimate of 20 000 net job losses in January is consistent with the scenario of an expected return of recruits in the coming months, if growth continues. The most surprising is the fall in unemployment to 9.7%, its lowest level since last August. Economists feared the contrary a rise in unemployment beyond the threshold of 10%.

This rate is calculated from a survey of potential job seekers, while the estimate of creations or deletions of positions from a survey of businesses. But last month the proportion of discouraged unemployed and of persons employed part time, lack of full-time position, declined.So says the rate of "underemployment," the single most severe unemployment, back in January to 16.5%, against 17.3% in December.

Other positive signs are emerging. For the first time since January 2007, enrollment in the manufacturing sector increased (+11 000). This is best supported by increased overtime and raising the average actual working week. The average hourly wage also rises by 0.3% against 0.2% the previous month. Temporary jobs continue their net increase (+ 52 000). While they doubted the strength of demand, companies, out of prudence, first prefer to hire temporary employees, rather than recruiting staff permanently low fee payday loans .

The services sector, largely dominant in the U.S. economy, had destroyed 96 000 positions in December.He has recreated 40 000 in January. The good news is, however, be interpreted with caution, because it largely reflects the hiring of temporary workers by the federal government to carry out the census this year. The states and local communities hit by falling tax revenues continue to reduce their workforce.

Revised estimates

"Judging by the figures of growth in the fourth quarter (+5.7% yoy), reflecting mainly an effort to restock, real final demand is not strong enough to push companies to start of hire.It will take probably six to twelve months to see a trend of strong recruitment, "says Jay Mueller, portfolio manager with Wells Capital Management in Menomonee Falls (Wisconsin).

Reading the figures released Friday is complicated by multiple revisions of previous estimates. November proved much better than we believed, with 64 000 new net posts and not 4 000. But December was disastrous, with 150 000 net job losses, rather than 85 000 as we had originally estimated. Moreover, a massive revision of figures covering the twelve months prior to March 2009 reported eliminations 930 000 additional jobs. This brings to 8.4 million jobs destroyed in the United States for two years.

The euro ended the year in small form. For the first time since early September, the single currency rose again Friday to below $ 1.43 and briefly touched a low point, on Monday at 1.4280 dollar. Last month, the euro was trading at $ 1.50 again, "a disaster," was then proclaimed Henri Guaino, special adviser to Nicolas Sarkozy, now more discreet about the changes. Once is not custom, it is fundamental to the European economy, considered worse than in the U.S., affecting the markets.

The decline of the euro began in early December with the debt crisis Greek degraded by Fitch. It widened last week when Standard & Poor's followed this movement. "The market remains skeptical about the state budget of Greece, which should continue to dampen prospects for the euro," says Jane Foley cabinet Forex.com.

Debts under surveillance

One Member State trembles, and the whole currency area flickering. Especially that Greece is not alone in worrying the markets. The debts of Spain and Ireland, which have surged with the crisis, are also under close surveillance.

Financial solidarity with countries in distress, implicitly shown by German Chancellor Angela Merkel at the European Council has not been enough to reassure markets. Even if they are all very positive news from the United States seem, by comparison, the best news for investors. "The United States are ultimately not so badly placed compared to other major world economies," says a strategist at HSBC in Hong Kong.

Overseas, unemployment has stopped growing in November, the U.S. economy could even recreate jobs in the first quarter.In 2010, all institutes ensure the growth of the United States looks twice as strong as that of the eurozone. The dollar's rise also reflects an early turning point for monetary policy. The Fed said after its last monetary policy committee that it would leave its policy rate close to zero for a "prolonged period", but it plans to turn a gradual withdrawal of liquidity from month March which will make dollar investments more attractive.

A third factor supporting the dollar this year, said Patrick Artus, Research Director at Natixis: purchases of greenbacks by the Chinese central bank is rife, Beijing had no intention of letting the yuan appreciate against the dollar …

Exxon Mobil launched a massive operation. The Texan oil giant announced Monday in a statement putting his hand on XTO Energy, a specialist in exploration and production gas field unconventional. The stock transaction is valued at 41 billion dollars (28 billion euros). An amount that includes 10 billion debt to XTO. The news that investors react. On Wall Street, the action XTO recorded a jump of 16.65% to 48.38 dollars, while Exxon Mobil abandoned as 2.99% to 70.65 dollars.

Through this transaction, expected Exxon 0.7098 new share issue by XTO title. This is equivalent to a 25% premium for shareholders of XTO, compared to the closing price on Friday, December 11, which served as basis for agreement. The deal should be finalized in the second quarter 2010 after the green light by shareholders of XTO and regulators.After the merger, Exxon plans to establish in Texas a new organization to manage development and resources that will bring him XTO Energy.

The exploration and production of unconventional gas represents a potential size of the United States. For Rex W. Tillerson, executive director of Exxon Mobil, this acquisition will be an opportunity to increase investment and create new jobs in the U.S. economy.

Gemalto has announced that exclusive negotiations with the group Xiring to acquire its banking activities. The statement showing the transaction has not been clarified, but it should be limited, given the turnover in the banking business Xiring in 2008, which reached 16 million euros. Still, business is plummeting, the latter has reached 5.3 million euros in 2009, a decrease of 45.5%.

The contribution of this activity will strengthen Gemalto, the plan provides for 2010-2013 "complementary acquisitions" to reach an operating result of 300 million euros in 2013, up more than 50% compared to 2009. The plan also includes the payment of a dividend for 2009 of between 0.20 and 0.25, which is subject to shareholder approval in May.

In the field of secure transactions as well as for safety, the 2010-2013 plan for 2011 provides a margin "to one situated in the upper portion of the top ten. The operation today and should allow him to qualify for this purpose.