International & World Report

Useful but expensive. INSEE publishes Friday the first study measuring the effects of tax incentives implemented since the early 1990s to develop home care services (child care, home help for the elderly, housework …). "With an estimated cost of three billion euros in 2010, the tax system is more than half of public spending for the sector," notes and the statistical institute.

Established in 1991, these tax incentives allow households to deduct from their taxes half of their spending on home care services in a ceiling. This system was completed in 2007 by a tax credit for tax-free households, with half the money spent now repaid them without the income tax is a limit.Thus, a household spends 2,000 euros per year in-home services and pay (before deduction of tax benefit) 500 euros tax can now get 1000 euros, against 500 before.

Result, "said resort" home care services took off in twenty years. It doubled between 1996 and 2008 from 6 unsecured personal loans.4% to 12.8% of households. "This development reflects both supported the regularization of undeclared work and employment creation, because of better solvency of households," says INSEE.The institute estimated that between 85,000 and 300,000 the number of households that have used more, thanks to fiscal measures, such services.

Tax Credit

The only tax cut would have enabled the creation, between 1991 and 2007, from 12,000 to 43,000 full-time equivalent jobs "at an annual cost per job created between 23,000 and 85,000 euros."

The tax credit, introduced in 2007 for households not taxable, would have in turn fostered the creation of 4,000 to 14,000 jobs, an annual cost of between 9,000 and 28,000 euros per job. This new provision is only in the end only 2% of the overall cost of the tax benefit (122 million) from the simple fact that users are low-income households, rather young, and therefore little use to home care services.

The NYSE has been won by a renewed optimism on Monday. After opening up, in a market reassured by the pledges of trust made by Germany and France in connection with the recapitalization of banks in the euro area, Wall Street has accelerated the pace in mid-session. The Dow ends up sharply from 2.97% to 11,433.18 points and the Nasdaq 3.5% to 2566.05 points. The New York Stock Exchange finished down Friday evening after lowering the rating agency Fitch notes from Spain and Italy.

The U.S. stock markets remained open on Monday, public holiday in the United States (Columbus Day, which commemorates the discovery of America by Christopher Columbus).Only the bond markets were closed.

The willingness of the Franco-German recapitalize banks and out of the spiral of debt crisis, however, as in Europe, supported investor sentiment. Tonight, President américainBarack Obama supported "the strategy of Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel. The latter, meeting in Berlin on Sunday pledged to respond "lasting and comprehensive peace" to the crisis in the euro area for the G20 summit in Cannes, 3 and 4 November. Proposals must be made but no details were supplied. "You will see the end of an entire fully functional," promised the Chancellor. The fate of Greece is suspended from his verdict of the Troika, reminded the two leaders.

About the difficulties the European banking sector, the two leaders said they were "determined to do whatever it takes to ensure the recapitalization of our banks." The French president also assured that the agreement between the two countries on how and where the process was considered "complete", denying the reports of differences over the use of EFSF to provide the necessary funds. Again, the "details" will be specified later, they promised, while the EU summit scheduled for October 17 and 18 was postponed to October 23 to allow more time for officers to prepare a response "global" .

Note also in Europe, the Board of Directors of Dexia has validated the night from Sunday to Monday the takeover of its Belgian subsidiary by the Belgian government for a $ 4 billion.The Franco-Belgian bank, the first victim of the debt crisis in the euro area, is found then dismantled and nationalized the Belgian branch.

Opening of the ball results

United States, the season of quarterly results of large companies to begin this week. As usual, the aluminum giant Alcoa will kick off these publications. Follow in particular, PepsiCo Wednesday, Thursday, JPMorgan Chase and internet group Google and finally, Friday, Mattel. Analysts bet on an average increase of 13% earnings per share for the third quarter. "The forecast for the quarter just ended are very conservative.So there's a good chance that companies do at least as well as the consensus ", say experts Cantor Fitzgerald.

On the macroeconomic front there was no major indicator on the agenda of U.S. investors on Monday. In the coming days, they expect including the minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Reserve (Tuesday) and retail sales (Friday). Specialists Aurel BGC, household spending should be slightly more dynamic in September. The slowdown in inflation for the effect should have increased the purchasing power of households.The latest U.S. statistics have also been rather better than expected, which has banished the specter of a return to recession in the United States and contributed to the rebound on Wall Street last week.

New clean cuts at Goldman Sachs

The side of values, the bank received the good news on the progress in Europe: KBW Bank Index jumped 5.31%. JPMorgan Chase gained 5.21% to 32.30 dollars and Bank of America 6.44% to 6.27 dollars.

The Sunday Telegraph, the investment bank Goldman Sachs (3.71% to 96.13 dollars) could make additional cuts.

Apple (5.14% to 388.81 dollars) announced that it has registered one million pre-orders for its iPhone 4S in one day

Netflix (-4.83% to 111.55 dollars) has given up its business organization DVD rental website in a new and renamed Qwikster said Monday that the industry would remain on the same site as that of video streaming services.

Sara Lee (1.58% to 16.71 dollars) announced Monday it will sell its bakery brands in Portugal and Spain as well as seven production sites in Mexico Grupo Bimbo to 115 million euros in cash

For its part, the world's number one supermarket chain Wal-Mart (2.07% to 54.81 dollars) announced that 12 brands of the brand were closed in Chongqing in China for 15 days, following a fraudulent labeling .

At the same rumors about Yahoo! (2.39% to 15.84 dollars) to continue. After the assumption of a takeover by Microsoft or by the Chinese partner of Motor internet, according to Reuters Jerry Yang, co-founder of the company could partner with a private equity investment to buy the company.

As was mentioned earlier this month, "there will be no increase in gas rates for individuals on 1 October 2011." This announcement was made Thursday by the Energy Minister, Eric Besson. Businesses, however, will face a bill for them saltier since the increase will be 4.9% next month.

The chosen solution is identical to that adopted by 1 July, when prices for individuals were frozen and prices for businesses increased by 3.2%.

GDF Suez angry

This is not to the liking of GDF Suez, which called for an increase of almost 5%. The gas giant said it would "seize the courts to protect its interests."According to the company, the shortfall of the government's decision is "290 million" in its accounts the second half.

"GDF Suez can only regret the decision of the French Government on regulated tariffs for natural gas because it is not in line with public service contract signed between the state and the company or the laws and regulations concerning the evolution prices of natural gas', denounced the group in a statement."GDF Suez will request that the coverage of costs paid by the group from the suppliers of gas costs have increased recently in the wake of the upward trend of oil prices on which the natural gas price is indexed" he argues.

The competitors of GDF Suez, grouped in the National Association of energy retail operators (anode), had also filed an appeal with the State Council on August 26 to contest the freezing of gas tariffs for households decided government.

But he had promised that there would be no increase until the presidential election. He also asked the Commission for Energy Regulation (CRE) to find a new formula more favorable price to consumers, after a 20% surge in prices.This should be remitted to government in the coming days.

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Wall Street has failed to confirm its rebound on Wednesday. At the close, the Dow Jones unscrewed from 4.62% to 10,719.94 points, the Nasdaq 4.09% to 2381.05 loose points and the S & P lost 4.42% to 1120.76 points. As in Europe, signs of nervousness was palpable. The volume of trade has been very substantial and heightened volatility.

Again, the problems of sovereign debt in Europe have focused attention. Greece plans to expand its exchange program to include obligations of the securities in the longer term, which penalizes first private creditors. As the European markets, particularly the banking sector has been attacked in the image of Bank of America (-9.87%), Citigroup (-8.49%), Goldman Sachs (-7.76%), Morgan Stanley (-7.52%), Wells Fargo (-6.17%) and JP Morgan Chase (-6.13%).

In addition, rumors of worsening debt rating by a French rating agency have affected investors. "These rumors are totally unfounded and the three agencies Standard and Poor's, Fitch and Moody's have confirmed that there was no risk of degradation," however, said the entourage of the French finance minister, Baroin.

"At this stage, investors dizzy," says Oliver Pursche, president of Gary Goldberg Financial Services.

Fear of a recession

In addition, operators are even very concerned about the state of the U.S. economy. Yesterday, the world stock markets have overreacted, and positive against all odds, to about the Fed. This has indeed ensured that it would maintain its rates at a historical low, and until mid-2013 to support the economy.Oil stocks have fallen dramatically and unexpectedly last week in the U.S., according to figures released by the U.S. Department of Energy. Crude inventories fell 5.2 million barrels to 349.8 million barrels in the week ended August 5. Analysts polled by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast the contrary, an increase of 1.1 million barrels.

Note that the budget deficit of the United States continued to fall in July for the fourth consecutive month according to figures released Wednesday by the Treasury Department.The action even reached 10.36 dollars during the session, the lowest price ever since the split with Time Warner in 2009.

Facebook on Tuesday launched a new application for mobile phones iPhone (Apple) and those equipped with the Android operating system (Google) to send messages to his "friends" on social networking, but also to other contacts. Called "Messenger", the application can send both text messages (SMS) and email.

Apple (-2.76% to 363.69 dollars) briefly delighted, yesterday, Exxon Mobil (-4.59% to 67.90 dollars), its position as the first market capitalization.

Courted by the stock exchanges around the world, Chinese private enterprises would they be about to fall into disgrace? After several scandals revealed in recent weeks, rating agencies go up to the plate one after the other. Fitch Ratings yesterday estimated that fraud cases were probably only just begun in the Middle Kingdom.

The U.S. agency has assessed 35 companies listed on the Shanghai and is ready to review its portfolio of Chinese. She considers their standard accounting and trading in Shanghai as many "key indicators of their weakness."

Although the Chinese accounting standards, adopted in 2006, are very close to IFRS (international financial-reporting standards), audit firms have not the confidence of investors, and obviously not the rating agencies which still largely prefer the four major (Ernst & Young, KPMG, PriceWaterhouseCoopers and Deloitte & Touche).The Fitch report said that companies from these large firms "would be more difficult to publish than those fraudulent reports go through domestic companies."

Fitch does not mean to review the scores awarded to different companies observed, adding that they "are already taking into account the context of a Chinese legal environment and an under-developed documentation, practices and specific business low corporate governance practices. "

Nevertheless, this case is the latest blow to Chinese companies. Last week, Moody's, which was hoisted the "red flags" of sixty-one companies that note. Fitch's rival evoked particular the opacity caused by a family shareholding in forty-three of them.

For several weeks, scandals involving Chinese companies listed multiply.Everything was packed in June, with the case Sino-Forest the title of which collapsed in Toronto. Since February, the business of handling accounts or misrepresentation of results had already forced many companies to delist in the U.S..

Loss of confidence

In total, nearly forty companies have shown irregularities, not the United States. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Constable of U.S. markets, has established a special committee to investigate these Chinese companies.

Hong Kong is no exception.The financial analysis firm Dealogic calculates that Chinese private enterprises were canceled or postponed them of trading, the equivalent of $ 3.8 billion.

Finally, there is a shift among investors who gradually give more confidence in the state, whose sovereign debt is rated A + by Fitch and Aa3 by Moody's, as private companies.

Pressure mounts on Barack Obama. While the deadline of August 2 approach, the U.S. president can not convince Republicans to vote on raising the debt ceiling of the United States. He must now face the threat of a deterioration in the country's sovereign rating from Moody's. Wednesday evening, the rating agency said it could in the coming weeks to lower the American note, currently the highest possible AAA, AA category, which is an investment category.

Moody's became the first of the three major rating agencies to place the note in the United States under surveillance with risk of a downgrade. In a statement, she said, receive "a possibility of increasing the maximum statutory debt is not found in time."Without an agreement, the U.S. could miss some payments on government bonds in circulation, she says. The dollar and U.S. bonds fell after the announcement. The dollar's share has compounded its losses. In morning trading, the euro is worth 1.4196 dollars.

The agency intends to end the monitoring as soon as it can conclude whether a defect is avoidable or not. It will then decide if the United States are entitled to keep a stable outlook on their ratings, on the basis of the budget negotiations between Democrats and Republicans. But even if Congress manages to avoid a technical default in August, increases the likelihood of a revision of the outlook to negative in the weeks following, told Reuters Steven Hess, Moody's analyst."The fact that they do not agree on are the maximum debt shows that the outcome of negotiations on the status of long-term debt may not be very positive," said he.

Recall

Following this announcement, the Deputy Treasury Secretary for Finance interior, Jeffrey Goldstein, said the Moody's decision was a timely reminder of the need for Congress to avoid a default and to seal an agreement to reduce serious budget deficit.

For Democrat Chris Van Hollen, the words of Moody's demonstrated the danger in the ideological debates. "The fact that Moody's places the United States under surveillance and downgrade our rating to AAA underlines the danger of those who would do our economy and our jobs hostage to a rigid ideology instead of acting in the best interests of our country, "he said.

Tense discussions at the White House

The opinion of Moody's fell just before the fourth interview in four days between Barack Obama and the leader of the Congress. According to a Republican parliamentary attaché, she was the most tense of all. To conclude the meeting of Wednesday, the president of the United States would have meant he would no longer concession, even if it were put at risk its mandate. "I got to the point where I have to say 'enough is enough!" Is Ronald Reagan would sit here? I reached my limits. This may possibly lead to the end of my presidency, but I will not yield on this point ", would he have said.

Denying the information that the President had left the room abruptly, an audience member who requested anonymity confirmed that he had expressed his exasperation, saying, "Enough!".Barack Obama, who will again parliamentary leaders on Thursday, has also asked to renounce the political maneuvering, according to a member of the Democratic Party.

In this context, the President of the U.S. central bank (Fed), Ben Bernanke, warned that failure to pay the United States would create "huge problems" for the country and a "major crisis" in the world .

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As announced in Le Figaro, the No. 1 reactor of the nuclear Fessenheim (Haut-Rhin) received clearance from the Nuclear Safety Authority (ASN) to continue operating. He "is able to be operated for a period of ten additional years provided you follow a number of requirements," said Monday the president of the ASN, Andre-Claude Lacoste.

The concrete slab on which was built the reactor must be such "enhanced" before June 30, 2013 "to increase its resistance to corium (molten magma resulting from insufficient cooling of the fuel, Ed) in case of serious accidents with piercing of the tank. "Second "major limitation" on the 40 made by the ASN: EDF will have to install an emergency device designed to remove the residual power "in case of loss of the cold source" before December 31, 2012.

Notice of extension published Monday is worth not discharge. Especially since it was made "subject to the findings of evaluations undertaken additional security after the accident Fukushima," said Andre-Claude Lacoste.

These stress tests requested by France and Europe aimed at assessing the behavior of plants in extreme situations. An "appointment" that could lead to the ASN "strengthen requirements," says its president. It will then EDF or the government to decide whether to continue the operation of reactor.

Monday, environmental groups and antinuclear called for "immediate closing" of Fessenheim.Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet, Minister of Ecology responds to Le Figaro.

Asian stock markets follow divergent paths on Wednesday. Markets are generally reassured by U.S. data released Tuesday, less bad than expected on the price front in the production and sales details. But the reluctance dominates.

In Japan, the Nikkei decides to follow the good mood on Wall Street has ended sharply higher on Tuesday. The benchmark index of the Tokyo Stock Exchange gained 0.28% to 9574.32 points at closing. The Topix, wider, took 0.22% to 824.65 points. Again, the action of the electric company Tokyo Electric Power (TEPCO), operator of the nuclear accident in Fukushima, illustrated by a jump of 32.12%, after the government submitted to Parliament Support project to fund compensation for victims. The title had already taken 25% yesterday.

In contrast, Hong Kong and Shanghai are losing ground.The Hang Seng loose 0.39% and the Shanghai Composite was down 0.49%. Investors are troubled by the decision of the People's Bank of China to meet Tuesday to 50 basis points on required reserve ratio of banks, hoping to contain high inflation that poses many economic and social risks. Beijing had announced earlier that consumer prices rose 5 guaranteed personal loan approval.5% in May, an unprecedented growth in nearly three years. The banking sector battered the image of Bank of China (-1.27%) and HSBC Holdings (-1.01%).

The KOSPI Korea following the Chinese markets and decline of 0.17%. Same thing for the Indian Sensex losing 0.31% and the S & P dropped 0.43% Australian. In Australia, the rating is pulled down by the airline industry. Qantas Airways (-1.06%) and Blue Holdings (-3.33%) and are penalized by their decision to cancel domestic flights due to volcanic emissions.

Trend mixed before U.S. crude stocks

The time is also reluctance on the oil markets on Wednesday. In morning trading, a barrel of light sweet crude for July delivery lost 25 cents to 99.12 dollars while that of Brent North Sea crude for delivery rose 49 cents identical to 120.65 dollars.

Investors await the day the report on the status of stocks of petroleum products in the United States. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires, crude oil inventories have fallen by 500,000 barrels last week. In contrast, gasoline stocks had risen by 400,000 barrels and distillates (including diesel and heating oil) of 900,000 barrels.

While the rating agency Standard & Poor's downgraded three notches note of Greece who becomes the country with the lowest rated in the world, the eminent economist Nouriel Roubini sees the end of the eurozone. In an article published in the Financial Times, the man who announced the financial crisis of 2008 estimated that countries of the European periphery abandon the euro within five years.

In the eyes of Nouriel Roubini, the debt crisis that weakens current euro area highlights the flaws in this monetary union. In fact, the euro zone has never been an "optimum currency area", ie a group of countries has any interest in sharing a single currency. There is indeed always been too strong and competitive economic differences between countries in the euro area.The founding fathers of the euro area, however, hoped that the differences between fiscal, monetary and exchange rates are offset by an acceleration of structural reforms within the euro zone countries. These measures would then have enabled the countries of the eurozone converge.

Without economic convergence, the euro area is doomed to failure

But "the reality is quite different," says Nouriel Roubini. Following the establishment of a common monetary policy, countries are folded on the weapon budget to adjust their economic policies. Very different policies have been implemented within the eurozone. Consequently, the lack of fiscal discipline in countries like Greece and Portugal involved in the birth of speculative bubbles in other countries like Spain or Ireland. And finally, the peripheral countries have become less competitive.

Economist reaffirms that to work, creating a currency area must be accompanied by a fiscal policy even as the establishment of supranational sources of income or the issuance of sovereign bonds Commons. In the absence of economic convergence, the euro area is doomed to failure, according to the economist.

Thus, Nouriel Roubini believes that there is now a way to restore the competitiveness of peripheral countries: leaving the euro, return of national currencies and depreciation. Such a scenario seems inconceivable today, is the economist who said that nothing says that in five years this idea has not gained ground, especially if the economies of peripheral countries are stagnating. Unless the idea of ​​a Euro reaches more federal drilling, some European leaders call for that greater European integration.

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Since mid-May, the United States exploded the ceiling set by Congress of American debt, around 15,000 billion dollars currently. This ceiling has been found in January. It would suffice to go back again to exit the United States from embarrassment: the country can theoretically borrow on the markets when the threshold is exceeded. Which is to say that the U.S. is in a situation of default.

But the maneuvers have pushed until August 2, the bankruptcy of the federal state. The White House and Congress have so until that date to agree. The first press the other to raise the ceiling, but he refuses to press the button until the government has not detailed a program foresaw and specific reductions in public spending. The United States shackle in effect three years of deficit exceeding 10%.It should reach around 1.6 trillion dollars this year.

If the financial world does not doubt the ability of great leaders of the first world power to agree, for the good of the global economy, the timetable is narrowing. And rating agencies do not fail to recall. Thus, after Standard & Poor's in April, Moody's puts a sudden extra pressure on Thursday by threatening to put the debt rating of long-term United States, currently at AAA, on negative watch, implying an actual deterioration in the coming months.

No to raising the ceiling

Yesterday, Wednesday, Barack Obama received dozens of Republican representatives in the White House. These, a majority in their meeting, refused to give the green light to an increase in the federal debt ceiling because of cuts in spending."We need to tackle this debt," said out of the meeting the head of the budget committee in the House, Paul Ryan, author of a draft budget with drastic cuts in funding for the welfare state and criticized by Democratic allies of Barack Obama.

Tuesday night, the House rejected by 318 votes against 97 an increase of 2,400 billion of debt ceiling, a move described as "irresponsible" Democratic side.

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