International & World Report

"Real estate: the cropped Scellier

"Niches: plane and down the ceiling

"Companies: rising social package

"Other tracks: capital gains on the hot seat

Operation must! The government will this week attempt to convince the financial markets on its ability to control public finances. François Fillon unveiled late Wednesday afternoon in the presence of Baroin and Valerie Pécresse, the Ministers of Economy and Budget, the new conservation measures for France to retain investor confidence and its " AAA. "

The government enters the final stretch trade-offs. François Fillon and Nicolas Sarkozy meet to sort the list of suggestions made last week by Bercy (and amended by the relevant ministries) and begin to remove some tracks.Then the president and prime minister Wednesday to finalize the measures to adopt.

The government did not release the extent of the plan, but it evokes an effort between 5 and 10 billion, and a trend towards the top. The turn of the screw will break down between savings on public spending and further cuts in tax and social niches.

On this last point, the government does not start from scratch. The measures that were passed in the fall (tax on marriages, on the solar panels, niches plane, etc.). Will yield 2.4 billion in 2012. But we'll have to do much more. There is another month, the government did not request such an effort to households and businesses. He planned to take samples of only 3 billion. With 2.4 billion already in the pipeline, the step to take was minimal.But since the degradation of "AAA" rating from the United States, France finds itself under pressure from the markets. Even if it borrows at low levels (2.74% at ten years), a sign of confidence that it continues to generate, France must do everything to protect his note. For if it were lowered, the state should borrow at higher rates. According to the Court of Auditors, an increase of one point would increase the debt burden of $ 2 billion the first year. To prevent a runaway cost of debt, the government should not deviate from its route.

Increase in the social package

Paris has pledged to reduce its public deficit to 5.7% of GDP in 2011 and 4.6% in 2012. This objective was particularly complicated since the Insee reported zero growth in the second quarter. Bercy forecasts an increase of 2% of GDP in 2011 and 2.25% in 2012 now seem too optimistic.On average, economists expect now on a 1.4% growth next year. However, less growth means less tax revenue and more spending for the state, the social security and local authorities. Without necessarily announcing Wednesday a revised its growth forecasts, the government is obliged, if he wants to keep its deficit targets, to take austerity measures …

Increase in the social package for businesses, new plane and lower overall ceiling of niches, penknife devices ultramarine and real estate … the tracks are not lacking. The government also provides measures for the social security system, not to mention taxing very high incomes as suggested on Wednesday, Maurice Levy, president of Publicis and the Association of Private Enterprises (Afep), in an article in Le Monde ."We need efforts that will be requested to the French are fairly distributed," assured the same day Valerie Pécresse on Europe 1. The measures adopted will be included in budget 2012.

France can she get into the spiral of Greece, where budget cuts exacerbate the recession, which in turn widens the gap? A priori not. This year, increases in taxes, resulting from the measures passed in the fall, reached $ 12 billion. Without destabilizing the country.

Real estate: the cropped Scellier

Before the crisis, Bercy was considering reducing benefits. The pressure is greatest.

• Law Scellier

The niche Scellier reduces its tax by investing in rental real estate. It was expected that the tax reduction equal to 22% of the investment in 2011 reaches 18% in 2012.The reduction could fall to 15%.

• Ready to zero +

There are plans to reintroduce a means test for the loan (PTZ), in order to focus on vulnerable households.

• Capital gains on real estate

The capital gain on the sale of a principal residence will remain tax exempt. For other assets, the gain is taxed at 19%, plus 12.3% social. However, there is a reduction (10% per year after five years in prison) that applies to the capital gain and will disappear for undeveloped land for building. It is also the question of decline (eg 5%) for other goods.Another track: the system of reduction of the gain disappears for the payment of social security contributions.

Niches: plane and down the ceiling

The tax loopholes will undergo a new movement of the plane after the last year which affected 22 devices (Scellier, actions overseas, the tax credit for environmental equipment in the house). The rate of tax reduction was reduced by 10%: a rate of 50% was increased to 45%, a rate of 25% to 22% … The measure, however, has yet to be felt, because the first plane applies to the income tax paid in 2012, sitting on the revenues of 2011. The government planned to meet the plane in 2011 (eg 15%) and pass a new tax on plane sitting on the revenues of 2012.
Widely used devices, such as overseas benefits or tax credits for equipment of the house will still be trimmed.MPs want all the niches are planed. Others will disappear. In addition, the overall ceiling of niches, set at 6% of income over 18,000 euros, will be lowered.

Companies: rising social package

Social package, paid by companies on the profit-sharing and employee savings, should be increased from 6% to 8%. Expected gain: 400 million euros. Since its inception in 2009, the government increased the fee by 2 points every year! Systems loss carry-on prior and subsequent, which limit the corporate tax should be reduced. They benefit primarily to large companies but the government wants to rebalance the tax burden with the small. The carry-back would
limited to one year. And to carry forward losses from the profits would be capped.In Germany, the losses charged can not exceed 60% of the profit. However, the idea of ​​limiting the deductibility of loan interest is difficult to implement.

Tax on very wealthy households

The government pledged in the spring to tax high incomes, and a working group must report its findings in the fall. Two tracks are at this stage on the table to non-deductible from corporate income tax payments "extravagant" or create a new tax paid by very wealthy households. The latter option holds the rope in the government because it has the support of parliamentarians. Gilles Carrez, the rapporteur of the budget UMP
in the Assembly, propose to tax at a rate of 1% or 2% revenues exceeding one million euros per year. But Peter wants Méhaignerie the new tax applies from 150,000 euros to 200,000 euros in annual income for a couple.The lively debates ahead!

Other tracks: capital gains on the hot seat

Gilles Carrez wants the taxation of life insurance is carried over the water each year on their earnings potential, while households are now taxed when withdrawn at a variable rate depending on the length of detention ( 7.5% after eight years). Another idea: adjust the taxation of life insurance, whether it is placed in shares or products without risk. The UMP Jérôme Chartier wants to create an additional ceiling on tax loopholes, reducing to 50% of tax due from the advantage of niches. But Bercy is not favorable. Finally, many parliamentarians call for the removal of reliefs on capital gains from stocks and bonds (third year in excess of five years from 2012).

The ranking of cities where life is the most expensive in the world has just been updated. Based on the study "Prices and Earnings" of 2009 conducted by the Swiss bank UBS, the ranking reveals a new top trio now consists of Oslo, Zurich and Geneva. New Delhi, Manila and Bombay are on their last on the list.

To establish this classification, UBS has written, based on European consumption patterns, a basket of 122 goods and services in 73 cities worldwide. Surprise for New York, formerly the sixth, falling heavily to the 14th because of the weak dollar. Paris, however, losing three places, is now considered to be more expensive than New York, as it appears in 12th place.

Regarding wages, Zurich tops the list of cities that pay the best.Far behind Paris and Lyon are respectively the 24th and 25th place in this ranking shows that during that wages are twice lower than in Switzerland. Central to the survey on which this list is based: the purchasing power. UBS has in fact a classification of employees taking advantage of the stronger purchasing power based on their net hourly wage. If Zurich, Sydney and Luxembourg occupy the podium, London 16th and 22nd Lyon. Gones is the capital of the French before the capital, Paris listed in 28th place for the only criteria in purchasing power.

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"I listened to France Info radio Saturday when I heard the note of the deterioration in the U.S. by Standard and Poor's. Though I have expected, I was very worried. Not for the United States, but I wondered what would happen Monday at the opening of the markets. I spent the day listening to the radio gamberger. It was great for me because all day the journalists spoke only financial, AAA rating, the rating agencies. We rarely talked about as much my passion in the media! Joking aside, I was worried. Sunday, I surfed all the sites info from my iPhone, that's how I learned that the ECB was planning to buy securities in Italy and Spain. I was reassured, but I waited for the opening of markets with anxiety. "

"So it's the end of the world?"

"Monday morning, arrive at work before the markets open.My colleagues and I, we laugh yellow, you wonder "when is the end of the world?". The morning went well thanks to the announcements of the ECB, I breathed a sigh of relief. I expected that the stock market tumbles and climbs, but it rises very little. But when it was revealed that the ECB did not buy that much of Italian and Spanish titles, bang, everything collapsed. There is nothing worse than a disappointed hope. To make matters worse, a spokesman for the German government said that the European emergency (EFSF) should "stay as it is" (the face of calls, including French, to increase its staffing to fight against debt crisis , Ed). In the world of finance, it was a joke: As soon as the stock market decline we say "ah, a German leader has spoken." Well there was quite that.Monday night, the ACC finished the session on a further drop of 4.68%. "

"The worst days of my week is definitely Tuesday and Wednesday. There, I was really afraid, I hung my head payday loans. We were stunned to face the noise of the gravity of the situation of Societe Generale. As the bank had already had to deal with the case Jérome Kerviel (the trader who lost nearly 5 billion euros in the bank in 2008, ie), the rumor might have seemed credible. This story disgusts me. When I think that some have started this rumor to sell shares short and buying 20% ​​less than two days later, it puts me out of me. Because I know that those who suffer, it is the small savers. Tuesday night, the ACC shows a gain of 1.63%. Nevertheless, I am not alone.However, since the 2008 crisis, I learned to better my personal life separate from my work, I do sleep more as I have done in the sub-prime crisis. I slept like a log, exhausted. "

"I'm not going to shoot myself"

"Wednesday, the markets are sealed by rumors of degradation of the note of the French debt. I'm not surprised. My personal analysis is that the deterioration of the U.S. debt will have negative consequences on the note of the French debt. The CAC closed down 5.45%. I try to relax at home in the evening. I will not shoot myself in the foot every time things go wrong. "

"Thursday and Friday, the stock market has regained color. On Thursday, the CAC closed on an increase of 2.89% and 4.02% Friday. I'm not confident either. I do not know how long we're going to balance.I spend Friday night to read newspaper articles, think about how markets will open Monday. I started to install fiber optics to my house, I will continue to tweak this weekend. To be able to surf the web faster to read the financial information. Gamberger for what will happen to the market opening on Monday. "

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The American and European leaders were under pressure Sunday to try to agree on a concerted response to the debt crisis in the eurozone and the degradation of the note of the United States. Front line, they seek to avoid further financial market plunge Monday, worried about the slowdown in global growth and spread of the debt crisis in the eurozone. Since Friday, so they stepped up contacts.

• Maintenance of imminent G7 finance ministers. Finance ministers of the G7, which includes the U.S., Germany, Japan, France, Canada, Italy and Britain, have stepped up telephone contacts this weekend in order to develop a common strategy to offer.After heavy turbulence in global financial markets, which lost 2,500 billion during the past week, they must reassure investors about the ability and determination of their countries to reduce deficits and public debts. A telephone conference of finance ministers and central bankers to be held Monday, according to Japanese news agency Kyodo. Interviews are tentatively scheduled before the opening of Asian markets (in the night from Sunday to Monday in Europe).

• A G20 focused on the debt. More broadly, the G20, which groups the world's major economies, contacted by telephone Sunday morning to discuss the consequences of the debt crisis on both sides of the Atlantic. Nothing had filtered from the meeting at noon.Only South Korea said that its confidence in the U.S. Treasury had not changed despite the decision of Standard & Poor's. "There will be no change in the policy of foreign exchange reserves of South Korea," said Vice Minister of Finance.

• The ECB will speak Sunday. Among the tracks in the study is a possible intervention by the European Central Bank, which could buy government bonds in Italy and Spain. This intervention is strongly demanded by the markets payday loans. The European Central Bank Thursday reactivated its share repurchase program of sovereign debt in order to calm soaring interest rates in some countries of the euro area, but has so far bought only small amounts of debt and Irish Portuguese, while speculation is focused on Italy and Spain.If the decision to intervene is taken, the ECB and national central banks will begin to redeem the bond markets open Monday. A meeting of governors will be held Sunday to 18 hours.

• Nicolas Sarkozy met with David Cameron on Saturday. The President, who chairs the G7 and G20 met Saturday evening on the phone for thirty minutes of the financial situation with British Prime Minister. The two men "agreed on the importance of working together to monitor the situation closely and keep in touch in the coming days," said a London spokesman for Downing Street, without giving further details. The discussion between the two leaders has focused on his view "the euro area and the lowering of the rating American."

• Barack Obama called on Europeans Friday night.According to the White House, Bush spoke by phone separately with President Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel about "the latest developments of the crisis in the euro zone" and noted "the importance of [the] implementation "of measures adopted at the summit of the euro area on July 21. The leaders of the eurozone had concerted Friday after finding that the agreement found to cope with the debt crisis had not convinced the markets. If Italy and Spain are at the heart of the turmoil, other countries are also affected such as Belgium.

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The text provides for the implementation of financial sanctions in case of conflict of interest.

LE FIGARO. – What are the main points of this text?

Xavier BERTRAND. – I said I want there to be a before and an after-Mediator. That's why I wanted an ambitious reform and concerted based on three pillars. The first is transparency in conflicts of interest. For it is clear that it is essentially this question that has caused confusion in public opinion after the Mediator by creating a climate of suspicion unbearable. Another important point when there will be questions about a drug, the doubt should benefit patients and not laboratories. Finally, better information for patients is necessary, as well as better information and training for health professionals.

Only sanctions can overcome the conflicts of interest.What are your plans?

The law sets up financial and criminal penalties for violators. Any decision of a proceeding in which a conflict of interest is identified will be void. For laboratories, the penalties can go as far as the marketing ban. All this is particularly chilling.

You know a law can not do everything. How do you proceed?

The law will not be the only element of this overhaul of the system. We must prepare decrees, including the training of health professionals. Thus, the continuing education of physicians should no longer give the feeling of being entirely in the hands of medical representatives. That is why I want this new system is evaluated in two to three years.I do not want to do in half-measures but in radical reform.

The General Inspectorate of Social Affairs called to abolish the profession of pharmaceutical sales. You do not accept this proposal, why?

There is a distinction between promotion and information. It is clear that the existence of the medical as we knew it is over. It is even prohibited individual to the hospital. Physicians will face several health visitor. Funding for the training of doctors must be watertight. Certainly, the pharmaceutical industry will contribute, but not directly as is the case today. It will do so through taxes and royalties, which go through the state and Medicare before being paid back. I want there to be far fewer links between laboratories and physicians in training low fee payday loans.Finally, the Minister of Health should be aware of all the training modules for sales representatives and all the documents they will present to health professionals. This is the French Agency for Safety of Health Products, renamed the "National Security Agency of Medicines and Health Products" (ANSM), who will have control.

The text also plans to make public all contracts with the press, learned societies and patient organizations. This means he the death of the medical press?

This is not to stop there advertising in the newspapers, but we can require that the amounts of payments to be made public.

While France has decided to prohibit the marketing of the Actos diabetes, the European Medicines Agency wants to leave it on the market.What do you do?

We will maintain the suspension of Actos. This medicine will not be back in French pharmacies. With Germany, we call an approach at European level so that our position is respected. If the European Commission sided with the European Medicines Agency and forced us to return the Actos on the market, there will be a showdown. Also, I am convinced that it is necessary to reform the drug in Europe, because I want that one gives more power to national agencies. Laboratories must understand that things have changed.

The Constitutional Council has just approved the text on the compensation fund for victims of the Mediator.To the laboratory Servier is it always the first charge before the health authorities?

Yes! We should not be mistaken about the primary responsibility in this matter: it is the responsibility of laboratory Servier. The compensation requested by the National Compensation Medical (ONIAM) for victims of the Mediator will be increased to a 30% penalty if the laboratory Servier refuses to comply. We were told that with this 30% penalty (in the body of law, the penalty is 15%, Ed) it was an emergency law, the Constitutional Council has given us reason. In addition, I ask Servier to cooperate fully to compensate the victims.

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Further escalation, that night, in the war between the elected officials for several months Republicans and Democrats in the U.S. to find a solution to the need to reduce the U.S. budget deficit. Having failed to reach an agreement with Barack Obama, the chairman of the House of Representatives, Republican John Boehner, Friday slammed the door to negotiations with the president.

At issue this time, as the Republican's will vote Democratic president to make an additional $ 400 billion of tax increases. A demand unacceptable, according to Boehner, while the two sides had previously agreed to a ceiling of one trillion dollars in additional tax revenue.This Saturday, the threat of a default by August 2 of the world's largest economy has thus further increased.

Of default formally excluded

The President has convened several political leaders to an emergency meeting Saturday afternoon at the White House to try yet again to reach compromise. Both sides say they are confident of raising the debt ceiling (14.294 billion U.S. dollars), reached on May 16, but whether common ground had been reached on the amount of the uncapping. Barack Obama and John Boehner have ruled out a formal non-payment within 10 days.

But the talks still face the question of the amount of budget cuts and debt reduction.Republican side, John Boehner said that after the new clash, he preferred to look to the leaders of the Senate to find a "reasonable" on these issues. Which casts a big doubt about the outcome of negotiations Saturday with the president, which is called Boehner. Democratic side, Barack Obama is prepared to assume full political responsibility to raise the debt ceiling in order to unlock at least for a time, the status quo. "If that's all Congress can do, I will sign an increase in the ceiling to take us to 2013," the president said.

Obama recalled that he had proposed to the Republican's $ 1.65 trillion spending cuts various offers an "extraordinarily fair" said the president.But still not enough for John Boehner, who accuses the president's inability to take "tough decisions" on reducing public spending. Boehmer wishes to bring to the 3 trillion budget savings over 10 years.

Time-critical

The time to find common ground is critical. The readiness of Barack Obama to convene a further meeting this Saturday is a sign that the U.S. president does not want to wait until the deadline of August 2 to reach an agreement. "We have more time in front of us," he said.

Recalling that Wall Street opened Monday, the president pointed to the impact on financial markets of such uncertainty. "Americans are outraged" by the inability of Congress to act, he said.This willingness to find a solution is also shared by the Republican camp, in which counsel highlighted the urgency of an agreement by Monday. What then leave both parties ten days to write a non-redundant legislation and get it validated by Congress.

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Saturn must be profitable in three years: it is the objective that its new owner, HTM Group, has set. The holding of the family group Mulliez (Paragraph, Kiabi, etc.). Boulanger strengthens its brand with 35 stores in French Media Saturn, a subsidiary of the German Metro, which she bought on June 30 for an undisclosed price.

"Saturn knew generate traffic in its stores with low prices and promotions, but never developed Internet business and has never managed to be profitable," especially in front of supermarkets are on the same niche (26 % market share), explains Layous Bernard, director of purchasing and marketing Boulanger.

"With Saturn, Boulanger changes category. Faced with global suppliers, we will have greater purchasing power and we will be known to the public, "he says.The distributor of multimedia products and services and appliances improves its national coverage with this acquisition, which "saves 3 to 4 years of expansion." Even if Baker is, first, giving up open the store on the outskirts of Saturn provided Avignon and on the other hand, give five other outlets of the brand (Toulon, Le Havre, Mulhouse, Aubergenville , Angers), and a shop in Tours Boulanger to respect the opinion of the Competition Authority on the merger.

No project abroad

The integration of the stores kept Saturn, which carry a turnover of 500 million euros, will allow Boulanger (97 stores) to reach the 2 billion mark in sales in a French market the electrical appliance 22 billion euros, according to Gfk.

"The market has been growing steadily for twenty years, with the exception of 2009," says Francis cord, CEO of HTM Group. Since the beginning of the year, but the activity is again down, 1.2%, except for sales professionals on the Internet, such as Darty and Fnac. These are already doing about 10% of their sales through this channel, twice as Boulanger, who made his priority. Points boulanger.com withdrawals and will appear in the old Saturn, because a client of two picks the order.More reason to want to see HTM Group "soon" its goal of 150 stores Boulanger on the rise, with major cities and especially Paris-line of sight. International expansion, produced by its competitors, remains a dream, "but before going abroad, one must be strong in our home market," said Francis cord. Confident, it provides a higher turnover of Boulanger 3% over the year, at constant perimeter.

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Even stronger in Asia on Monday morning, investors reacted badly to the new rescue plan for Greece: the Paris Bourse, a technical problem prevents the scoring but when the problem is solved, the CAC is expected to fall sharply and move under the 3800 points, which had not happened since March 18. "Some technical problems occurred during the pre-opening, the markets could not open on time and are working to resolve this issue as soon as possible," said NYSE Euronext exchange group at the time of Opening assumed the Paris Bourse, at 9 am.

Despite a new rescue plan for Greece launched last night by finance ministers in Europe, markets remain worried and disappointed "investors continue to seek a quick fix that is not the working time of European political authorities.The difficulties in finding compromises will continue to maintain the highest concern, "warns one at CM-CIC.

After the reassuring words of French and German leaders who have displayed a welcome unity Friday, the firm tone adopted by the ministers said that the issue will be very long to resolve. The central bankers in the eurozone have defined the conditions of payment of a further tranche of loans in July, but the finance ministers of the euro area indicate that the release of the loan must be accompanied by the vote of a new plan of austerity and privatization by the Greek Parliament. Banks and other private creditors and participate in this new plan. However the contours of that plan remains to be defined.

In Milan, the stock market fall of over 2% after the warning from the rating agency Moody's on Friday night.The agency said Friday it planned to lower the debt rating of Italy, currently set at "Aa2." The agency said the risks to growth, financial markets and the government's ability to reduce the deficit. Featuring Dax index of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange opened sharply down Monday from 1.20% to 7078.59 points against 7164.05 at the close Friday. The London Stock Exchange it retrograde from 0.87% to 5665.24 points.

On the currency side, the euro weakened against the dollar: 7:45 to Monday morning, the euro lost 0 instant personal loans guaranteed.57% to 1.4225 points, showing that the meeting euroépenne last night did not convince the markets. In addition, oil continues to fall sharply, quoting under $ 92 in New York.

Opening of the Paris Air Show

All eyes will be mostly shot on the Paris Air Show, which opens Monday.Bad news for Airbus (parent company: EADS) last night, an incident of a private Airbus A380 giant aircraft flight, the aircraft had struck the wing of a building while being towed on taxiway of the airport. Boeing, he launches the new version of its popular 747 jetliner, highly anticipated.

In addition, the CEO of EADS, Louis Welsh, said the sale of 22.5% stake held by French and German states could be done without exposing the group to a hostile takeover, note leFinancial Times. Louis Welsh evokes an existing structure "extremely hard" for the development of the company.

Sanofi-Aventis. An investigation into a corruption case involving employees of the pharmaceutical group in Germany was opened, said Sunday a spokesman for prosecutors in Verden."Sanofi confirms that there is an ongoing investigation and that he will cooperate with the authorities related to this investigation," said his side a spokesman for the group.

PSA Peugeot Citroën. The mayor of Aulnay-sous-Bois (Seine-Saint-Denis), Gerard Segura, announced Friday it had requested an appointment at Industry Minister Eric Besson for clarification on the future site of PSA Peugeot Citroën.

Areva / EDF. According to reports in The Tribune, Nicolas Sarkozy has warned a week ago the CEO of EDF Proglio the departure of Anne Lauvergeon.He finds himself in a strong position.

The French group Publicis has bought Chinese Genedigi, specializing in public relations, events and digital marketing, with about 400 employees, for an undisclosed amount, he said Monday.

"CONTEST: Estimate the Cac 40 in late June

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Too big banks are no longer popular. International regulators working on a way to discourage institutions to reach a critical size, representing a systemic risk. The aim is to avoid repeating the situation in 2008 when, at the height of the crisis, governments were forced to come to the rescue of the banks described as "too big to fail", ie plants with failure could endanger the financial system.

The Basel Committee on banking regulation, which will meet next week and consider the implementation of specific measures to the thirty largest banks, reported Bloomberg and the Financial Times. The idea would be to impose new capital requirements higher than other institutions through the application of a new specific prudential ratio.If these measures are validated, the additional reserve capital that institutions would be selected will earn 3.5% of their risk-weighted assets according to Bloomberg, or 2.5% reported the Financial Times. Restrictions in addition to 7% imposed under the Basel III standards.

The new ratios would be imposed on institutions sliding scale depending on the size of banks and their links with their competitors. The Bloomberg stressed that the highest ratio of 3.5% is not applicable today. But it would serve to discourage institutions to grow further.

France wants to exclude Crédit Agricole and Societe Generale lists

In total, nearly 30 banks that would be an increase in their capital reserve requirements. The most severe restrictions relate eight institutions including BNP Paribas.Four other European banks (Deutsche Bank, HSBC, RBS and Barclays) and three U.S. (Citigroup, JPMorgan and Bank of America) are also involved no fax cash advance. They would be forced to comply with a Core Tier 1 ratio, an indicator that measures the equity of 9.5%, the Financial Times. A second level would include four other banks.

But the list of banks involved are not yet fixed. The French regulator to try and ensure that Crédit Agricole and Societe Generale will be free of these new rules.

In addition, regulators have not defined the means by which institutions can be put in order.The arsenal of new rules imposed specifically to institutions "too big to fail", whose size deemed critical obliges the authorities to intervene in case of bankruptcy, should be ready for the next scheduled for November G20 stated Mario Draghi, chairman of the Financial Stability Board, in April.

But these new laws should not prevent banks from merging. "Institutions should already get the green light from regulators before any merger, the new ratios will be charged an additional constraint," says a corporate lawyer at the agency Bloomberg.

Little reaction in the markets

These ads have little impact on the shares of French banks. In the morning, the folds of the securities of banking stocks are less important than their benchmark index, the CAC40.The banks operate in a pocket-handkerchiefs: Company Génarale folds 0.5% 0.4% BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole 0.3% against a fall of 1% for the CAC 40.

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While the rating agency Standard & Poor's downgraded three notches note of Greece who becomes the country with the lowest rated in the world, the eminent economist Nouriel Roubini sees the end of the eurozone. In an article published in the Financial Times, the man who announced the financial crisis of 2008 estimated that countries of the European periphery abandon the euro within five years.

In the eyes of Nouriel Roubini, the debt crisis that weakens current euro area highlights the flaws in this monetary union. In fact, the euro zone has never been an "optimum currency area", ie a group of countries has any interest in sharing a single currency. There is indeed always been too strong and competitive economic differences between countries in the euro area.The founding fathers of the euro area, however, hoped that the differences between fiscal, monetary and exchange rates are offset by an acceleration of structural reforms within the euro zone countries. These measures would then have enabled the countries of the eurozone converge.

Without economic convergence, the euro area is doomed to failure

But "the reality is quite different," says Nouriel Roubini. Following the establishment of a common monetary policy, countries are folded on the weapon budget to adjust their economic policies. Very different policies have been implemented within the eurozone. Consequently, the lack of fiscal discipline in countries like Greece and Portugal involved in the birth of speculative bubbles in other countries like Spain or Ireland. And finally, the peripheral countries have become less competitive.

Economist reaffirms that to work, creating a currency area must be accompanied by a fiscal policy even as the establishment of supranational sources of income or the issuance of sovereign bonds Commons. In the absence of economic convergence, the euro area is doomed to failure, according to the economist.

Thus, Nouriel Roubini believes that there is now a way to restore the competitiveness of peripheral countries: leaving the euro, return of national currencies and depreciation. Such a scenario seems inconceivable today, is the economist who said that nothing says that in five years this idea has not gained ground, especially if the economies of peripheral countries are stagnating. Unless the idea of ​​a Euro reaches more federal drilling, some European leaders call for that greater European integration.

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