International & World Report

Firefighters desperately looking for financial markets. For a month, the Cac 40, which recorded its ninth session Thursday consecutive decline, has lost 17%! And the stock market this week might conclude on the tenth. Shortly after opening, the stock market index fell by 2.09% to 3250.95 points.

On other European financial centers, the atmosphere is also depressed: the Footsie-100 from the London Stock Exchange 2.58% to 5254.11 loose points, the DAX 30 Frankfurt Stock Exchange fall 3.85% to 6167.96 points, the FTSE MIB in Milan leaves 3.44% to 15,573.84 points, the Madrid Ibex 35 yields 1.96% to 8516.20 points, the Bel 20 in Brussels is down 3, 61% to 2143.45 points.

In anticipation of U.S. employment figures

That can extinguish the fire which engulfed global stock markets? The President of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, it is tested in an exercise it is broken.Without having reassured, he did not panic by not clarifying his intentions on debt buybacks. "It's the return of the behavior of crisis," says Aurel BGC in it.

Consequence: the main European stock markets fell 3% to 4%, Wall Street plunged 5%, Asian stock markets slumped 2% to 5%, oil is trading around 85 dollars a barrel and not to vicinity of $ 100 as there are about ten days, and gold flies to 1700 dollars per ounce. A scenario that is not yet catastrophic according Volokhine Gregori, president of Meeschaert Capital Markets. "We're not on a" bear market "(bear market over a long period), he says.We will be there when the stock markets lose 20% per week. "

After the publication of interim results of the banks, the speech of Jean-Claude Trichet, investors will monitor closely the figures for employment and unemployment in the United States for the month of July (1430). "This does not fundamentally change the market trends, said Grigory Volokhine Business on BFM.

The trade deficit declined in June

Most investors expect to know if there will be further monetary easing to support the U.S. economy and if European countries are finally going their act together. " Same story on the side of Aurel BGC. "Even a figure in line with expectations should not prevent markets brooding, said Christian Parisot, chief economist at Aurel BGC.Hopefully a little bounce if it exceeds the expectations. "

Other macroeconomic news: the trade deficit of France. He was greatly reduced in June to 5.598 billion euros, after 6.415 billion in May, according to data released Friday by Customs.

On the corporate side, the last two banks issued after market close on Thursday night: Natixis and Dexia.

Natixis: -3.29% to 2.676 euros

Natixis on Thursday posted a net profit above expectations in the second quarter thanks to a sharp increase in the contribution of results from regional banks of its parent BPCE (People's Bank – Savings Bank).

Dexia: -6.88% to 1.54 euros

Dexia announced the heaviest loss in its history, a performance due to both the sale of a portfolio of toxic assets – centerpiece of its restructuring plan – and its contribution to the aid plan on sovereign debt Greek.

Carrefour: 18.56 euros stable

Carrefour announced a new reorganization of its management, including replacing its chief financial officer, when the group just straightening operations in France and suffered a major strategic setback in Brazil.

LVMH: -2.30% to 112.55 euros

LVMH said Thursday it had received approval from Consob, the Italian stock market authority, for offering Italian jeweler Bulgari on which he announced the takeover in March.

Vicat: -5.47% to 44.24 euros

Vicat said Thursday expect a slight reduction of its operating margin in 2011 due to the revolution in Egypt, the rising energy costs and start-up costs of factories in India.

Careful, this is the verdict seems to be emerging markets about the compromise between Republicans and Democrats to raise the debt ceiling. European shares closed sharply lower on Monday and Wall Street is in the red at mid-session.

European leaders hailed the recovery of 2.4 trillion dollars in the legal limit of U.S. debts. Enough to hold until 2013, after the U.S. presidential election in November 2012 of. "This plan raises considerable uncertainty that hovered in recent days on the market about a risk of recession in the United States, welcomes Philippe Waechter, head of economic research at Natixis AM. While no agreement was reached before Aug. 2, the federal government could not spend what he earns, which would have sealed the growth. "But economists remain cautious: the lack of plan detail and ambition.

• Two uncertainties

The plan presented by President Barack Obama and the Democratic and Republican negotiators is still a project that has not passed by Congress. "The Republicans may be unhappy with the cuts in the defense budget. (…) In addition, any tax increase is explicitly provided, which could make it difficult to convince a sufficient number of Democrats to vote the text, "Analysis Paul Mortimer-Lee, chief economist at BNP Paribas IPC.

Second unknown, raised by Inna Mufteeva, economist at Natixis, "no timetable has been issued for budget cuts. These cuts should not be introduced too fast, Barack Obama assured, but it would be interesting to know when. "Especially the plan, based solely on spending cuts and no tax increase, is likely to influence an already weak growth.

• A plan insufficient

"The total savings proposed, or 2.4 trillion dollars, is insufficient to put the U.S. budget on track," said Paul Mortimer-Lee. The rating agency Standard & Poor's estimated 4 trillion in savings over 10 years are needed to reduce the U.S. debt.

• The main decisions postponed

Almost two-thirds of the austerity measures -1.5 trillion dollars over a total of 2.4 trillion-flow from the proposals of the committee for the opportunity to be presented in November. Result, "there are still too many uncertainties about possible future tax and budget cuts, concerned about Paul Mortimer-Lee. This uncertainty will penalize investment decisions and hiring companies. Growth will suffer.The compromise presented Sunday night therefore merely postpone the problem, and not far beyond. "

• Questions about Washington's ability to make decisions

"Initially, Obama targeted Republicans as a plan of 4,000 billion dollars, said Philippe Waechter. As they differed on how to achieve their ambition has melted over the negotiations, to agree in the end the lowest common denominator (2400 billion dollars in savings). "

So lacking in the original goal to doubt the effectiveness of the American political system. "If there were only Republicans and Democrats agreed was found. But the presence of extremists of the Tea Party has changed the situation, forcing the Republicans to more than intransigence, Philippe Waechter analysis. It has changed the political system in the United States.Part of the Republicans wanted something other than what was negotiated usual, causing the blockage. "

This could happen in the future, warned Standard & Poor's in a note dated July 14: "The inability to reach an agreement today leads us to believe that there will be no more coming years. "This argument could lose its" AAA "in the United States.

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"Yes, I advocate a federalist vision of Europe," enthused Nicolas Sarkozy on Thursday before his counterparts in the eurozone. The Franco-German proposals for a better European governance are not intended to create a big night in which federal public opinions are not ready. The French initiative on the fact that the Greek debt crisis has revealed the interdependence of European economies. "We have reached a degree of interpenetration as the most federalist of us did not even imagine. The Stability Pact is not enough, "says one senior European official.

The proposals will set aside any supranational option. The proposal to create the office of Union Minister of Finance put forward by Jean-Claude Trichet, the head of the European Central Bank, was clearly rejected by Paris."The idea of ​​the president is to move towards more European integration. However, he does not want a supranational economic government, "said one close adviser. "He believes in a more close monitoring by peers, by the Commission, and also the creation of a European rating agency," it adds.

Among the possible ways, that of a regular meeting of Heads of State in the euro area. Until now, German Chancellor opposed any "institutionalization" of the summit to seventeen for three reasons: not to cut Europe into two hopelessly between those who use the euro and those that have no. Do not give the new speaker a casting vote in the Mediterranean countries (Greece, Portugal, Italy, Spain …) friends of France and are far from being paragons of virtue.And, ultimately, do not support the idea of ​​a Franco-German Executive which is expected to submit the rest of Europe.

A "European Fund"

For this reason, many MEPs protest against the double standards of Paris and Berlin. "The economic governance of the Franco-German dictatorship is not a solution," says MEP (Modem) Sylvie Goulard, who defends the idea of ​​involving the European Parliament to tax policy options. Other tracks include the gradual transformation of European Stabilization Fund into a "European Fund." Finally, many "federalist" believe we should give more resources to the European Commission. "The statements of intent for a greater convergence of economic policies were made in the Lisbon strategy, and it did not help," says Sylvie Goulard yet.

At the Élysée, it places great emphasis on the need to confront the high-level fiscal policy choices, budgetary, wage. "Between 1997 and 2004, the French and the Germans had a policy against it. In France, we opted for 35 hours in Germany, Schroeder was the opposite. It was the model of what not to do when you're in the euro area, "says one close to the head of state.

Asian stock markets continue to ride a wave of optimism after the Greek Parliament voted Wednesday austerity plan imposed on the country. Allowing it to qualify for the new tranche of international financial assistance of 110 billion euros was granted last year. As clashes continue between now expected between demonstrators and police, MPs are now called to vote on the bill of the plan voted on yesterday.

The Nikkei 225 gained 0.36% to 9832.72 points. The increase is significantly more pronounced in Chinese markets: the Hang Seng in Hong Kong climbed 1.70% to 22,436.80 points and the CSI 300 in Shanghai rises from 1.51% to 3045.50 points.

On the other Asian financial centers, the trend is similar. The Taiwan TAIEX advances 0.43% at 8610.54 points.In Australia, the S & P / ASX 200 is 1.49% at 4597.10 points, the FTSE Singapore Straits Times gained 1.04% to 3111.73 points and in India, the BSE Sensex was up 0.24% to 18,738 points.

South Korea, Asia's fourth largest economy, has lowered its growth forecast for 2011 to 4.5% against 5% originally planned, due to rising oil prices. In addition, inflation is expected to reach 4% for the year, against 3% originally planned. The Kospi gained 0.47% to 2104.21 points.

A successful introduction to Buy Your Dreams

This good news from Greece strongly supports the bank stocks. In Hong Kong, HSBC Holdings climbed 2.17% to 77.6 Hong Kong dollars and Bank of Communications is 1.91% to 7.46 Hong Kong dollars.In Japan, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group climbed 2.35% to 391 yen and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group was up 1.97% to 2485 yen.

Note that the Stock Exchange of Shenzhen (southern China), the action of the automaker Build Your Dreams (BYD), in which the American billionaire Warren Buffett owns 9.89%, soared 43.7% to 25.87 yuan for the IPO.

In addition, the South Korean giant Samsung Electronics filed a complaint against Apple to prevent it from importing to the United States several of its most famous products manufactured abroad. At the Seoul Stock Exchange, Samsung lost 0.84% ​​to 826 won.

Oil prices without direction

Oil prices were without leadership in electronic trading Thursday in Asia after sharp rise in the day following the adoption by the Greek Parliament of a tight budget, analysts said.In morning trading, a barrel of "light sweet crude" for delivery in August took 15 cents to 94.92 dollars. That of Brent North Sea crude for August delivery fell by 32 cents to 112.08 dollars.

The indexes are volatile on Wall Street Monday. After starting at equilibrium, the Dow Jones returns to the 12,000 points mark and goes up from 0.70% to 12,020 points in the morning. S & P and Nasdaq rising 0.86% respectively in 2675 and 0.61% points to 1276 points.

This hesitation is tinged with nervousness in many markets, on both sides of the Atlantic, while determining opens one week in Greece. The vote on Wednesday and Thursday by the Greek Parliament, the new austerity plan imposed on the country already focused the attention of investors.

In this tense atmosphere, the euro regained a little against the dollar, while still fears of contagion in the eurozone. To 15 hours, the single European currency was worth 1.4199 dollars against 1.4190 dollars on Friday evening at 21 hours.For their part, oil prices fell Monday at the opening in New York, still within the scope of the decision of consuming countries to market crude oil dipped into their reserves. To 15 hours, on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), a barrel of "light sweet crude" for August delivery traded at 90.51 dollars, down 65 cents from Friday.

Household spending disappointing

On the macroeconomic front, consumer spending of U.S. households were unchanged in May for the first time in nearly a year, while revenues increased 0.3%, slightly less than expected, according statistics released Monday by the Commerce Department. Adjusted for inflation, spending fell by 0.1% in May for the second consecutive month.The decline in vehicle sales after the disruption of production caused by the earthquake of March 11 in Japan may explain the decline.

The PCE price index base (core) has also increased by 0.3%, its biggest increase since October 2009, after growing 0.2% in April. On an annual basis, the index closely watched by the Federal Reserve, rose 1.2% against 1.1% the previous month.

"These are disappointing figures: the actual use sign its second decline after a strong increase in the first quarter," said Inna Mufteeva, an economist at Natixis, saying "more concerned about the risks to the short-term economic recovery. "

Other indicators U business card.S. manufacturers are also expected this week.And they may not much reassure investors already worried about the slowdown out of global growth and problems, ever more acute, the European sovereign debt.According to analysts at Aurel BGC, regional surveys of manufacturing, Dallas (Monday), of Richmond (Tuesday), then Chicago and Milwaukee (Thursday) could further deteriorate.

The ISM manufacturing index for its national will on Friday, as car sales in June and the numbers of the activity in the construction sector.

Nike and Black & Decker to a

On the corporate side, Nike (0.91% to 81.92 dollars) will publish on Monday, before the market opening results for the fourth quarter, before an information day, from Tuesday, with analysts, on these results and the long-term strategy around the CEO, Mark Parker at the headquarters of Beaverton (in Oregon).

Stanley Black & Decker (1.49% to 70.31 dollars) also adds that on Monday the offer made by the Swedish Securitas Niscayah of his compatriot, a supplier of safety equipment, with a proposal valuing the company a , 2 billion, including debt.

Treatment of diabetes developed by Bristol-Myers Squibb Lab (-0.50% to 28.79 dollars), in conjunction with AstraZeneca, was effective in a study over two years, but an increasing number of cases of bladder cancer or breast cancer was observed in patients.

Philip Morris (0.39% to 65.36 dollars) is threatening to launch legal action against the Australian government, which intends to impose on tobacco packaging generic without distinctive logo, to fight against smoking.

Facebook weigh $ 70 billion

Note that the investment fund Capital GVS took a small stake in Facebook, valuing the social network about $ 70 billion (49 billion euros). The fund said Monday it has bought 225,000 shares at an average price of 29.28 dollars each.

The number of outstanding shares of Facebook is about 2.4 billion, according to data specialist Sharepost. Facebook leaders consider an inevitable IPO but are silent on his calendar. At $ 70 billion, Facebook is valued slightly below Amazon. Com, Cisco Systems or Hewlett-Packard.

The response of government was quick. Thursday afternoon, members of the IEA (International Energy Agency), which includes industrialized countries, have decided to use their strategic oil stocks. One way to compensate for the lack of production Jamahiriya, the latter being blocked since February. A few hours later, the Energy Minister, Eric Besson said in a statement he wanted to Total "that any drop in oil prices is reflected at the pump." A wish welcomed by the CEO of Total, says Besson, who will make the same request to other fuel dispensers.

The decision of the IEA is not surprising. The agency warned in May that it was ready to use "all means" in case of persistent lack of production.Specifically, it will bring to market 2 million barrels per day for a month, compared to 1 low fee payday loans.6 million barrels of Libyan production. PAGE The United States will provide half of Europe about 30%. France will contribute in proportion to its consumption, or 3.2 million barrels, equivalent to about 2% of French strategic stocks.

To some analysts, this is a "rifle-shot." Coupled with the renewed concerns about global growth, the announcement Thursday caused a decline in oil prices – about $ 8 a barrel in London and $ 6 in New York.

Total impact "of course" at the pump a possible drop in oil prices, said Friday in an AFP spokesman for the group. "The question is, how long must the stocks are issued, it can not be done in one hour to another," she said.

At Paris Air Show, Airbus steals record after record. While the European aircraft manufacturer has been a landmark order yesterday from the Indian carrier IndiGo, involving 180 Airbus A320 150 A320neo, a subsidiary of EADS could do better on Thursday. During the fourth day of the Paris Air Show, Boeing expected to announce the largest order in the history of civil aviation in the number of devices with 200 A320neo from Air Asia.

In addition, American Airlines is about to acquire from Airbus over 100 single-aisle A320 series, according to Bloomberg. The price of the order could amount to about $ 8.5 billion at list prices. These devices replace less efficient airplanes like the Boeing 757 and MD-80.This command would be a setback for Boeing since the company is usually the client U.S. aircraft manufacturer, Airbus' main competitor.

After its intention to buy A320neo, the airline GoAir Indian low cost has signed a firm order this morning for 72 medium-haul of its kind.

Since the beginning of the show, the success of the A320neo is undeniable: it should pass the milestone of 1000, just seven months after its commercial launch. Subsidiary of EADS has already exceeded its targets since was 500 A320 orders by the end of Bourget.

Other models also reap Airbus orders this Thursday

The A380 also encounter expressions of interest. Skymark Airlines has confirmed Thursday morning ordering two A380s.The amount of this additional order would reach at list price, $ 750 million.

In addition, Airbus hopes to get "a significant portion" of the large order that would formalize Air France-KLM this summer, said Thursday Fabrice Brégier, Chief Operating Officer of the European aircraft manufacturer. The French company could opt for the A350 model. "We believe that the A350 has advantages over the Boeing 787. For us to make to Air France-KLM, "commented the manager.

For now, the official death toll is over 700 orders and options, including 347 firm orders for Airbus in three days. The total amount of these orders, at list prices, at more than $ 65 billion.Boeing is so far below as the U.S. garnered 126 orders and options, including 61 farms, pour19 billion.

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Even stronger in Asia on Monday morning, investors reacted badly to the new rescue plan for Greece: the Paris Bourse, a technical problem prevents the scoring but when the problem is solved, the CAC is expected to fall sharply and move under the 3800 points, which had not happened since March 18. "Some technical problems occurred during the pre-opening, the markets could not open on time and are working to resolve this issue as soon as possible," said NYSE Euronext exchange group at the time of Opening assumed the Paris Bourse, at 9 am.

Despite a new rescue plan for Greece launched last night by finance ministers in Europe, markets remain worried and disappointed "investors continue to seek a quick fix that is not the working time of European political authorities.The difficulties in finding compromises will continue to maintain the highest concern, "warns one at CM-CIC.

After the reassuring words of French and German leaders who have displayed a welcome unity Friday, the firm tone adopted by the ministers said that the issue will be very long to resolve. The central bankers in the eurozone have defined the conditions of payment of a further tranche of loans in July, but the finance ministers of the euro area indicate that the release of the loan must be accompanied by the vote of a new plan of austerity and privatization by the Greek Parliament. Banks and other private creditors and participate in this new plan. However the contours of that plan remains to be defined.

In Milan, the stock market fall of over 2% after the warning from the rating agency Moody's on Friday night.The agency said Friday it planned to lower the debt rating of Italy, currently set at "Aa2." The agency said the risks to growth, financial markets and the government's ability to reduce the deficit. Featuring Dax index of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange opened sharply down Monday from 1.20% to 7078.59 points against 7164.05 at the close Friday. The London Stock Exchange it retrograde from 0.87% to 5665.24 points.

On the currency side, the euro weakened against the dollar: 7:45 to Monday morning, the euro lost 0 instant personal loans guaranteed.57% to 1.4225 points, showing that the meeting euroépenne last night did not convince the markets. In addition, oil continues to fall sharply, quoting under $ 92 in New York.

Opening of the Paris Air Show

All eyes will be mostly shot on the Paris Air Show, which opens Monday.Bad news for Airbus (parent company: EADS) last night, an incident of a private Airbus A380 giant aircraft flight, the aircraft had struck the wing of a building while being towed on taxiway of the airport. Boeing, he launches the new version of its popular 747 jetliner, highly anticipated.

In addition, the CEO of EADS, Louis Welsh, said the sale of 22.5% stake held by French and German states could be done without exposing the group to a hostile takeover, note leFinancial Times. Louis Welsh evokes an existing structure "extremely hard" for the development of the company.

Sanofi-Aventis. An investigation into a corruption case involving employees of the pharmaceutical group in Germany was opened, said Sunday a spokesman for prosecutors in Verden."Sanofi confirms that there is an ongoing investigation and that he will cooperate with the authorities related to this investigation," said his side a spokesman for the group.

PSA Peugeot Citroën. The mayor of Aulnay-sous-Bois (Seine-Saint-Denis), Gerard Segura, announced Friday it had requested an appointment at Industry Minister Eric Besson for clarification on the future site of PSA Peugeot Citroën.

Areva / EDF. According to reports in The Tribune, Nicolas Sarkozy has warned a week ago the CEO of EDF Proglio the departure of Anne Lauvergeon.He finds himself in a strong position.

The French group Publicis has bought Chinese Genedigi, specializing in public relations, events and digital marketing, with about 400 employees, for an undisclosed amount, he said Monday.

"CONTEST: Estimate the Cac 40 in late June

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Too big banks are no longer popular. International regulators working on a way to discourage institutions to reach a critical size, representing a systemic risk. The aim is to avoid repeating the situation in 2008 when, at the height of the crisis, governments were forced to come to the rescue of the banks described as "too big to fail", ie plants with failure could endanger the financial system.

The Basel Committee on banking regulation, which will meet next week and consider the implementation of specific measures to the thirty largest banks, reported Bloomberg and the Financial Times. The idea would be to impose new capital requirements higher than other institutions through the application of a new specific prudential ratio.If these measures are validated, the additional reserve capital that institutions would be selected will earn 3.5% of their risk-weighted assets according to Bloomberg, or 2.5% reported the Financial Times. Restrictions in addition to 7% imposed under the Basel III standards.

The new ratios would be imposed on institutions sliding scale depending on the size of banks and their links with their competitors. The Bloomberg stressed that the highest ratio of 3.5% is not applicable today. But it would serve to discourage institutions to grow further.

France wants to exclude Crédit Agricole and Societe Generale lists

In total, nearly 30 banks that would be an increase in their capital reserve requirements. The most severe restrictions relate eight institutions including BNP Paribas.Four other European banks (Deutsche Bank, HSBC, RBS and Barclays) and three U.S. (Citigroup, JPMorgan and Bank of America) are also involved no fax cash advance. They would be forced to comply with a Core Tier 1 ratio, an indicator that measures the equity of 9.5%, the Financial Times. A second level would include four other banks.

But the list of banks involved are not yet fixed. The French regulator to try and ensure that Crédit Agricole and Societe Generale will be free of these new rules.

In addition, regulators have not defined the means by which institutions can be put in order.The arsenal of new rules imposed specifically to institutions "too big to fail", whose size deemed critical obliges the authorities to intervene in case of bankruptcy, should be ready for the next scheduled for November G20 stated Mario Draghi, chairman of the Financial Stability Board, in April.

But these new laws should not prevent banks from merging. "Institutions should already get the green light from regulators before any merger, the new ratios will be charged an additional constraint," says a corporate lawyer at the agency Bloomberg.

Little reaction in the markets

These ads have little impact on the shares of French banks. In the morning, the folds of the securities of banking stocks are less important than their benchmark index, the CAC40.The banks operate in a pocket-handkerchiefs: Company Génarale folds 0.5% 0.4% BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole 0.3% against a fall of 1% for the CAC 40.

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The European Union (EU) comes to the rescue of its farmers. The European Commission agreed Tuesday to revise upwards in a "substantial" his proposal to release 150 million euros to compensate producers of vegetables in Europe. This is to cope with the losses suffered by the fruit and vegetables after the psychosis to EHEC bacteria has killed 24 people in Europe.

Brussels proposed to compensate the losses up to 30%. But a large majority of European countries have found that it was not nearly enough and have had "strong pressure" to review the amounts rise, according to a diplomatic source.

The exact amount of aid will however be adjusted estimates by country. "We will take the period from late May, marking the beginning of the crisis at the end of June" to calculate the amount of compensation, "said Agriculture Commissioner, Ciolos.This envelope will be accompanied by compensation to 30% of the actual value of losses since the outbreak of epidemics in early May in Germany.

Insufficient support

The only Spaniards consider that the bill because of the boycott of their products by European consumers has cost them 200 million euros. In France, the bill, according to professionals, is approaching 5 million.

French and Spanish Ministers of Agriculture have also questioned the principle of a refund only 30% of losses paydayloans. "What we want is there an answer for all producers, whether or not members of producer organizations and 100% of fair market value of losses," said the Spaniard Rosa Aguilar. The French Bruno Le Maire for his claims for a refund "to the nearest euro.

Berlin slammed

Germany on the other hand was roundly criticized for his handling of the crisis by European Commissioner for Health in the European Parliament meeting in Strasbourg on Tuesday. She had made allegations, soon withdrawn, cons of cucumber Spanish after the demonstration of the first cases of contamination. "It is critical that national authorities are not lining up to give alerts unproven, because it creates problems and psychosis," warned John Dalli."It is important to trigger alerts when certain scientific data," he said.

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