International & World Report

Demonstrate the sensitivity of the issue of employment at PSA Peugeot Citroën in five months of the presidential election, Nicolas Sarkozy is personally seized it yesterday. While he has made the defense of employment in the automobile one of its most cherished since the crisis of 2008-2009, he attempted to play down the scope of the saving plan of the manufacturer who announced Tuesday 6000 job cuts in Europe, with more than 4000 in France with the positions of providers.

"There will be no social PSA in France," said Nicolas Sarkozy, to mark the third anniversary of the creation of the Strategic Investment Fund (ISF). Picking up on the commitments of Philippe Varin , CEO of the group, it has has ensured that some 2000 employees of the group directly threatened in France (excluding retirements) would be "reclassified all."Nicolas Sarkozy was outraged to learn that Renault, which the state holds 15% stake, plans to transfer all of the production of its Clio 4 future in Turkey. Carlos Ghosn had to backtrack after being summoned to the Elysee.

The automotive industry employs, directly or indirectly, 2.3 million people in France, 9% of the employed population.

The week ended as it began in the Paris Bourse: down sharply. The index yielded 2.25% at 3123.55 points Friday and 6.53% for the week. London yielded 0.33% and 2.72% Frankfurt. The last five trading days have been eventful. Markets had initially plunged after the surprise announcement of the referendum in Greece. On Tuesday, the CAC 0 was 5.38% in currency a record for a holiday close to 5 billion euros. Optimism returned Thursday afternoon after the Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou raised the possibility to withdraw the draft and for the surprise decision of the European Central Bank lowered its key rate.

The wait before the EU summit on Sunday, this should be the watchword on the stock exchanges on Thursday. European financial markets are in effect suspended the decisions that should be taken after the EU summit to be held this Sunday. Folds U.S. and Asian indices, however, should weigh on the trend.

Politicians of the old continent have already promised that a solution to the crisis would be found. "Monday morning he will have the markets, the United States, China and the IMF are convinced that Europe has a plan, a European official placed loose in the heart of the discussion. If there is no agreement, each European country will be reduced to playing individual survival. "

Meanwhile, last minute negotiations are increasing.Nicolas Sarkozy visited emergency yesterday in Frankfurt to resolve differences between France and Germany directly with Angela Merkel. No information was available for this meeting. The Wall Street Journal, the discussions would focus on the possibility of allowing the EFSF to provide collateral to support bonds issued by countries in need rather than use it to provide direct guarantees.

Chapter macroeconomic, Germany will provide the Government's economic forecasts. Across the Atlantic, the weekly claims for unemployment benefits will be published 16 hours and the resales of September and the composite indicator of economic activity.Activity in the Philadelphia area in October will be known 16 hours.

New burst of publications

As for values, the Dexia should respond to green light by the French Senate on the guarantees provided by the French state in the process of dismantling the Franco-Belgian bank. Legislators have asked, however, a principle of banking counterparties.

Pernod Ricard achieved a turnover up 6% to almost two billion euros in the first quarter of fiscal year 2011-2012, according to a statement released Thursday.

Schneider Electric has lowered its forecast its operating margin from 2011 to 14% after posting a turnover up 4.6% to 5.7 billion euros in the third quarter.

Publicis announced that he fears a slowdown in activity at the end of the year, following growth of 7.5% of sales in the third quarter, but still think recording "above market growth" over the entire the exercise.

The manufacturer of smart cards Gemalto, the world, published Thursday in the third quarter sales of 491 million euros, stable over a year and affected by the poor performance of mobile telephony.

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"The next EU summit will be" decisive "

"Crisis of the euro negotiations last chance

It was an open secret. The six countries of the euro area currently receiving a rating of "AAA" (Germany, Austria, Finland, France, Luxembourg and the Netherlands), everyone knew that the Hexagon was the most fragile. And for two main reasons, as the visible one and the other as the nose on your face.

First is the only country of the "club of six" not to balance its accounts public, when we ignore the burden of debt (annual interest payments to our creditors). France continues to display a "primary deficit" in the words properly. This shows that the remediation work is far from complete.Note, for example, that Italy is now in a situation of "primary surplus", even though the peninsula remains weighed down by debt levels far higher ransom of a history of fiscal mismanagement even older than ours.

Second handicap, and distinguishes us from the other five members of the club "triple A" France is the only one to record a deficit of its external accounts. The imbalance between our imports and our exports attests an alarming lack of competitiveness. Clearly, if the French economy was not part of a monetary union, it would now interest to devalue its currency. She would even be forced by the markets.

But that Paris could lose its valuable in the future "triple A" and it would be first across the euro area which would be weakened. Including Germany. Across the Rhine, there is concern especially as a contagion effect.Professor Hans-Werner Sinn, president of the Ifo economic institute, also highly critical of the current functioning of the euro area, just bring a vivid demonstration quick pay day loan.

A model to redefine

In a recent study ("The Ten Commandments to save the euro"), he notes that the cost of insurance on the ten-year Bunds has increased tenfold since the crisis of the euro, to 1.2%. The fault lies, he says, to become burdens on Germany, the main funder of the rescue plans for its partners in the Euroland. This bill gets heavier a little more if France was itself degraded. The warning from Moody's recovery even more debate on French economic policy. Designating Paris as the weak link of the "triple A" rating agency highlights the twin deficits, internal and external, which is our brand.And these two imbalances, the most distressing is certainly the failure of "Made in France" to find its place under the sun of the euro.

Compared to its neighbors "triple A" – true "mark area" within the monetary union – France stands out on another point. Never in modern history since the First World War, it has succeeded in establishing a social contract where competitiveness is central. Such as the famous Wassenaar agreement of 1982 in the Netherlands, to exit the eternal Germanic model, in fact that of all Northern Europe. Rather than attempt to "re-enchant the French dream", which has ceased to be missing the point, here is the challenge.

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"The French debt ever more risky than the German

Trinity Place is not exactly the Tahrir Square, but the mood is not very different: the protesters want to express their ras-le-bol against those in power. United States, it is against the bankers and Wall Street financiers that discontent is rising. A popular movement calling itself "Mind Wall Street" apparent since Saturday in the heart of the financial district after taking the form of social networks.

Demonstrators protest hearing to December against what they denounced as the culture of "money", "greed" and "corruption" of Wall Street and asking Barack Obama to establish a commission putting "an end to influence of Wall Street on politics in Washington. "

Saturday, those with transforming the world capital of finance in place Tahrir U.S. were only slightly more than a thousand.Sunday, they were more than half and Monday, hundreds of "outraged", especially young people, continued to protest under heavy police surveillance. Some, including the long-term unemployed, a new phenomenon in the United States-had even slept the night on benches. We are far from the ambition of the movement: "20,000 people together, invade all of southern Manhattan, set up tents, mobile kitchens, barricades and hold peaceful Wall Street for months," and claims are at least different – from Tax the rich (heard by Barack Obama) to better education and greater respect for the environment through support for Palestine.

Social unrest

But the move reflects a real social unrest in a country where social inequality exacerbated by the crisis are becoming more glaring as Washington is incapable of falling unemployment rate below 9%. Ironically, New York is not Cairo and it is unclear how the movement could grow against the police operation from the authorities. The New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, known for his patience limited to public expressions of discontent, summarized its limits: "If they want to protest, they have the right, we will be happy to allow them to do so in specific locations (…) they can demonstrate provided they do respect the rights of those who do not show. "

Monday for the third consecutive day, the police strictly controlled the entrance to Wall Street financiers on presentation of their business card, to the delight of some employees of companies like Deutsche Bank and Bank of New York. During the weekend, police had cleverly divided the pedestrian crossings on Wall Street so that demonstrators can never enter. All banks are not installed on Wall Street. JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup and Bank of America, which announced the dismissal of 30,000 people in the coming years, have their headquarters earlier in Manhattan. In New York, the police presence was strengthened this week due to the expected arrival of heads of state from more than 120 countries, including that of Barack Obama on Monday.

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"SPECIAL – Depression, fear of debt

Pierre Mariani, managing director (that is to say the CEO) of the Franco-Belgian bank Dexia, has the gift to tell of the horrors with apparent nonchalance. Speaking to the AJEF Thursday (Association of Economists and financial journalists), he compared the lives of bankers in the current environment in disaster film "2012". No sooner had we escaped an imminent threat that a new arises. Compared to some of his colleagues, Pierre Mariani may have relaxation of the banker who in any case had no respite or almost three years ago, when he was dispatched to Brussels to head a bank just saved from the waters by the Belgian and French, and the Deposit.

Since then, considerable work has been shot: the balance sheet was reduced by EUR 170 billion, the financing needs of a hundred billion.At a time when European banks stumble over the availability of funds in dollars, Dexia is fortunate to have transferred his assets overseas (FSA, and in July, its portfolio of financial assets). At least that problem is not his, and he is also out today – contrary to some market rumors – that the Franco-Belgian bank is not the one who used this summer and again today at the box office dollars of the European Central Bank.

Still, the situation remains extremely tense for Dexia, "we are a sovereign funder – or rather subsouverain with local authorities – a strong presence in Southern Europe. It does not facilitate the life … "Pierre Mariani notes by wielding an understatement.Rating agencies – Moody's downgraded Dexia in July – are closely monitoring the sensitivity of the banking crisis of sovereign debt and refinancing conditions, knowing that the group is still heavily dependent on short-term refinancing.

In this situation, Pierre Mariani has perhaps even more than his colleagues their eye towards politics. "The debt crisis is now deep enough to destabilize the European financial sector," he warned, calling on European leaders to bring order in the governance of the euro area and to implement the Agreement of 21 July. It is however "not certain that the solution lies in a massive recapitalization" of European banks.

In addition, the head of Dexia focuses on the consequences of running the economic growth of the pressure right now on the banks."Everything is in place to organize a massive contraction of credit," he warns. Banks now carve their balance sheets to reduce their financing needs, especially long term, gradually emerging business critical, such as project finance, aircraft financing, loans to local …

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"Dexia pays dearly spring cleaning of its accounts

Three months after threatening to degrade the notes of BNP Paribas, Societe Generale and Credit Agricole, put under surveillance, the U.S. rating agency, Moody's, could rise to the act shortly shortly. According to sources familiar with the matter, the decision was "imminent." "It comes at the end of three months to impose surveillance," says a source. The rating agency that had accompanied its implementation in June under the supervision of a negative outlook, clearly had in fact paved the way for a deterioration in credit ratings. One step for BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole and Societe Generale for two.On the first day of September, the losses of the three titles are respectively 17.45%, 22.33% and 27.69%.

Analysts relativize

Especially, a controversy arose in late August on the valuation of debt securities by certain Greek French banks. The IASB, the body responsible for setting international accounting standards, criticized some financial institutions are not named, have valued their claims on the Greek state in ways internal development rather than by using market prices cheap payday advance. Which would have allowed banks to spend less severe impairment in their accounts. Even if they have applied a discount of 21% on government debt they have in their accounts, the three banks still have about six billion euros of Greek sovereign debt.

Some analysts relativize however, the scope of the surveillance on June 15 the three French banks by Moody's, noting that the other two rating agencies, Standard & Poor's (S & P) and Fitch attributed to them have lower grades. Crédit Agricole SA is currently rated "Aa1" by Moody's and "Aa2" by BNP Paribas and Societe Generale. S & P assigned the notes 'AA' with a negative outlook to BNP and "A +" with stable outlook to Crédit Agricole and Societe Generale. Fitch is on his side to "AA-" with stable outlook to BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole, and "A +" with stable outlook for Societe Generale.

Shortly before the opening of U.S. stock markets, index futures and Standard & Poors'500 evolved Nasdaq 100, respectively 0.07% to 1186.50 points and – 0.53% to 2205 points, suggesting a hesitant start of the session.

The day before, the index featuring New York has sold more than 1%, as the S & P, while the Nasdaq limited its losses – 0.78%. Investors signaled their disappointment and after the speech of the President of the Federal Reserve (Fed), Ben Bernanke. He did, in fact, made no indication as to potential nudges the Monetary Policy Committee of the U.S. central bank might decide to implement after the meeting scheduled for September 20 and 21.The banking sector fell sharply on Thursday on Wall Street, precisely because of this lack of detail.

The dollar has him down after another long-awaited announcement yesterday, but came after the close: the stimulus of employment. Announced Thursday by U.S. President Barack Obama, it reached 447 billion against $ 300 billion anticipated by the markets. Its effect on Wall Street, however, could be mixed, most investors expecting the Republicans in Congress, then block its adoption.

Market analysts estimate IG still that "the optimists seem to want to return to the market," leaving hope of eventually positive impact on Obama's plan investor sentiment. The question is whether this will play starting this weekend or delayed. Meanwhile, European stock markets were on the downside.Bank stocks were particularly exacerbated their losses after the remarks of Christine Lagarde, Executive Director of the IMF, stressed the urgent need for additional capital banks.Investors also follow closely the discussions of the G7 Finance, met for two days in Europe in Marseille.

Another item, from China, could also help to soothe, on both sides of the Atlantic: Inflation has indeed slowed in China in August, which removes the fear that Beijing tighten monetary policy payday loans direct lenders.

This Friday, Wall Street, the macroeconomic agenda will be relatively light, only a first estimate of consumer confidence from the University of Michigan for the month of September is indeed expected.

Threats to jobs at Bank of America

On the corporate side, no major publication was in sight Friday.

The job cuts planned by the management of Bank of America (BofA) as part of its restructuring plan could affect 40,000 people, said Friday the Wall Street Journal Online, citing sources familiar with the matter. The group identified on 30 June nearly 288,000 employees. So far, estimates of job losses were around 30,000, while many banks worldwide have announced significant staff reductions. These reductions would occur as part of an extensive research program savings called "Project LAC", the acronym by which exchanged the title of the institution to the New York Stock Exchange.

Texas Instruments, however, could respond after a warning issued Thursday night on its third quarter results, citing a decline in demand for semiconductors. IT had already warned in July that the current quarter would be modest.The group emphasized that this time the request had deteriorated to "a wide range of products, markets." The manufacturer of components that go particularly in the manufacture of mobile phones and automotive electronics, said now anticipate earnings per share between 56 cents and 60 against a previous range stretching from 55 to 65 cents.

Finally, according to The New York Times on Thursday, U.S. regulators are close to agreement with the mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, about their role in the crisis of 2008.

The Tokyo Stock Exchange plays yo-yo since the beginning of the week. After losing more than 1% Wednesday, the Tokyo Stock Exchange shows a sharp rebound of 2.18% to 8828.38 points. Investors reacted positively to the new fence up Wall Street but also the weakening of the yen that benefits Japanese exporters. Thursday morning, the dollar advanced in effect from 0.13% to 77.06 yen while the euro gained 0.05% to 110.99 yen.The Japanese Minister of Finance, candidate for prime minister, announced Wednesday a package of measures to counter the effects of the outbreak of the Japanese currency.

As a result, car manufacturers progressed significantly: Toyota climbed from 2.46% to 2785 yen, Mitsubishi rose 2.8% to 1761 yen and Honda advanced 5.9% to 2456 yen.

Oil prices rise

Other Asian financial centers also evolved significantly in the green, including the Chinese stock exchanges: the Hong Kong Hang Seng gained 1.55% to 19,767.60 points and the CSI 300 took 2.42% to 2878.01 points.Otherwise, the Kospi Index was up 0.86% to 1769.84 points, the S & P / ASX 200 in Sydney gained 0.88% to 4204.40 points and the FTSE Straits Times rose 1.21% in 2752, 77 points.

Oil prices were up Thursday morning during electronic trading in Asia, in a market sensitive to the situation in Libya and cautious speech eagerly awaited the head of the U.S. central bank (Fed). In morning trading, a barrel of "light sweet crude" for delivery in October has appreciated by 14 cents to 85.30 dollars per barrel of Brent North Sea crude for October delivery took 21 cents to 110.36 dollars .

Wall Street has failed to confirm its rebound on Wednesday. At the close, the Dow Jones unscrewed from 4.62% to 10,719.94 points, the Nasdaq 4.09% to 2381.05 loose points and the S & P lost 4.42% to 1120.76 points. As in Europe, signs of nervousness was palpable. The volume of trade has been very substantial and heightened volatility.

Again, the problems of sovereign debt in Europe have focused attention. Greece plans to expand its exchange program to include obligations of the securities in the longer term, which penalizes first private creditors. As the European markets, particularly the banking sector has been attacked in the image of Bank of America (-9.87%), Citigroup (-8.49%), Goldman Sachs (-7.76%), Morgan Stanley (-7.52%), Wells Fargo (-6.17%) and JP Morgan Chase (-6.13%).

In addition, rumors of worsening debt rating by a French rating agency have affected investors. "These rumors are totally unfounded and the three agencies Standard and Poor's, Fitch and Moody's have confirmed that there was no risk of degradation," however, said the entourage of the French finance minister, Baroin.

"At this stage, investors dizzy," says Oliver Pursche, president of Gary Goldberg Financial Services.

Fear of a recession

In addition, operators are even very concerned about the state of the U.S. economy. Yesterday, the world stock markets have overreacted, and positive against all odds, to about the Fed. This has indeed ensured that it would maintain its rates at a historical low, and until mid-2013 to support the economy.Oil stocks have fallen dramatically and unexpectedly last week in the U.S., according to figures released by the U.S. Department of Energy. Crude inventories fell 5.2 million barrels to 349.8 million barrels in the week ended August 5. Analysts polled by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast the contrary, an increase of 1.1 million barrels.

Note that the budget deficit of the United States continued to fall in July for the fourth consecutive month according to figures released Wednesday by the Treasury Department.The action even reached 10.36 dollars during the session, the lowest price ever since the split with Time Warner in 2009.

Facebook on Tuesday launched a new application for mobile phones iPhone (Apple) and those equipped with the Android operating system (Google) to send messages to his "friends" on social networking, but also to other contacts. Called "Messenger", the application can send both text messages (SMS) and email.

Apple (-2.76% to 363.69 dollars) briefly delighted, yesterday, Exxon Mobil (-4.59% to 67.90 dollars), its position as the first market capitalization.