International & World Report

The question on everyone's lips invited journalists on Thursday in Paris by Marc Ladreit de Lacharriere, the president (and owner) from Fitch, one of three international agencies Credit rating with Moody's and Standard & Poor's. The French government does risk losing one day or the other its AAA rating, which assures financing conditions for the optimal time? There is a little over a month, Baroin, the budget minister, although he had caused disturbance by declaring that it was a goal "tense". He had had to return for saying that France would keep its good signature "no doubt".

David Riley, head of Fitch Sovereign risk has certainly not been outright, but he wished to remind the public announcement of his agency last March 30, confirming the rating of "AAA with stable outlook, the best that either.Since then the agency, including half of the experts working in London and New York, has published another "positive comment", May 28, welcoming the conference at the Elysee on public finances with the social partners.

The diagnosis remains the same, if we believe the criteria provided by Fitch. Compared to other AAA-rated sovereign states (a dozen Worldwide), France is characterized by a per capita income slightly below average (around 35,000 dollars against 37,500).

Challenge for France

Instead, it relies on a level of inflation among the lowest and least volatile and "stability of tax revenues" (well above the average for other countries AAA).David Riley has also recalled that France had not had to suffer a banking crisis, unlike the United Kingdom or the United States, and its level of budget deficit below these two countries. Still, the notes are never acquired for eternity. "If the debt level should continue to grow, the question might arise in the medium term. But it is a challenge that France is not alone in facing. "

Fitch's meeting was not intended to scrutinize the French case but to explain the mode of operation of the agency. "If BP makes a mistake in the Gulf of Mexico, we do not criticize all the oil companies so we constantly amalgam when it comes to rating agencies' protests Marc Ladreit de Lacharriere.It will distinguish itself from its major competitors "doing work more than other analysts, in order to provide a diagnosis if not more documented beyond doubt. "Because ultimately, it is the investors who are the referees. The euro area is structurally borrowing outside for more than 1000 billion euros, "he quips. Some would in fact that the ECB could build itself a rating agency, which would obviously be judge and party.

David Riley the opportunity to explain why Fitch is expected to worsen 28 May Spain to AA +, which then was considered the final blow vis-à-vis a country plagued by the suspicion of markets."What then has changed? The worse than expected deterioration of public finances, the slow pace of restructuring savings, the contagion of the crisis and the deteriorating Greek sustainable growth prospects. Our decision was taken after a long period of explanation with the Spanish government, "he says.

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